Daily Insight

In early trading yesterday, the Euro pushed higher against the majors as better than expected unemployment figures and strong inflation data push us ever closer towards the 1.4300 level. The euro-zone unemployment rate slipped to 8.2% in February against 8.3% the previous month and Producer Prices also increased in line with expectations, rising 0.5%. As a result, the data increased speculation that the ECB will raise interest rates again over the coming months with the next likely increase scheduled for May.

We also have some important data released this morning in the Euro-zone with PMI Services expected to match the five-year high of 58.2 in February, portraying further evidence of growth in the service sector. In addition, there is also Euro-zone Retail Sales data released today at 10:00 with forecasters anticipating a slight rise last month. Sterling may be given a boost this morning as Manufacturing probably expanded for a fourth month running due in part to a sharp increase in UK exports, which is expected to show a rise of 0.6% in January, narrowing the trade deficit to £5.73 Billion.

In the past 48hrs, the Dollar has continued to slip against Sterling and the Euro as rumours intensified that the Federal Reserve are nearing the end of it's current rate cycle. ISM Non Manufacturing is released in the U.S this afternoon and is predicted to show a slight rise in March but we can expect to see further dollar weakness today after closing last night above 1.7550.

Data Released 5th April

EUR 09:00 PMI Services (March)

EUR 10:00 Retail Sales (Feb)

UK 09:30 Industrial Production (Feb)

- Manufacturing Output

UK 09:30 CIPS Services Survey (Mar)

U.S 15:00 ISM (Non Manufacturing)

written by Adam Solomon