The Euro may strengthen ahead of the ECB press conference where we will be looking for further evidence of a likely rise in rates next month
Following on from yesterday, the Euro rallied on the release of better than expected unemployment data in the Euro-zone, which showed a slight improvement in March, dropping to 8.1% from 8.2% in February. Coupled with a seemingly buoyant labour market, the Euro-zone service sector PMI is released this morning and forecasters are predicting a sharp rise from 58.2 in March, which was well below market expectations. In addition, Retail Sales is expected to show only a modest rise in March of 0.1% following a 1.3% year-on-year increase in February but the ECB Interest Rate announcement at midday today will give us the clearest indication yet that euro-zone interest rates will be lifted next month.
We have a plethora of significant data released today both in the UK and in Europe with the Bank of England Rate announcement at midday and it is widely anticipated that the MPC will keep interest rates on hold at 4.50% as the BoE wait for further evidence of a pick-up in consumer spending. In addition, the number of mortgage approvals are expected to rise to the highest level in almost two years in March, up 33% year-on-year as the UK housing market continues to thrive and the PMI Service Sector is also expected to show a modest improvement in April following the worst UK unemployment figures in 3-years.
There was some positive news for the Dollar yesterday as the ISM's index for Non-manufacturing rose to 63.0 in April from 60.5 the previous month despite many analysts predicting a decline last month. In addition, U.S Factory Goods Orders also unexpectedly rose by 4.2% in March and with Non Farm Payrolls released tomorrow the Dollar may be given a further boost as the U.S labour market continues to look robust.
Data Released 4th May
UK 08:30 Consumer Credit (Mar)
- Mortgage Approvals
UK 09:30 CIPS Service Survey (April)
UK 12:00 BoE Rate Announcement
EU 09:00 PMI Services (April)
EU 10:00 Retail Sales (Mar)
EU 12:45 ECB Interest Rate Announcement followed by Press Conference at 13:30
U.S 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims
written by Adam Solomon
Posted at: 09:25
<< Home