Exchange Rate Forecasts

As you know, the MPC vote from the December meeting is released at 09:30. If any of the nine member panel voted for a rate cut, it would be taken a firm indication of a possible cut early in the New Year, a negative for sterling. We also have US GDP at 13:30, bound to [...]

Sterling failed to recover from early weakness brought about by the EU budget rebate and comments from MPC member Charles Bean. We have public finance figures out at 09:30 this morning, followed by PPI in the US at 13:30. Tomorrow’s release of the last MPC vote could give sterling further direction for the remainder of [...]

The Euro is slightly firmer against sterling this morning after news of the EU budget deal is digested. Briatain made concessions that are seen as sterling negative, hence te GBPEUR rate being down 40 pips today. An MPC member (Charles Bean) also hinted in a Sunday Times interview at an early 2006 rate cut. The [...]

We have seen a serious move on cable and eurodollar the last few sessions. Dollar weakness ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting this evening is the main theme, with worries that the Fed’ may signal a softening of the long series of interest rate rises. Any sort of statement suggesting that these rate hikes will [...]

Shockingly poor manufacturing data gave sterling a knock yesterday. October output was down 1.0% versus expectations of a 0.2% gain. Cable found support precisely at our 17315 level, and GBPEUR at the 1.4700 support. This leaves a technical “cloud” hanging over sterling from here, and we need to regain yesterday’s highs before we can safely [...]

As expected Gordon Brown slashed his growth forecasts yesterday, from his initial predictions of 3.0% -3.5%, down to just 1.7%. “No growth Gordon” has now cemented his reputation for fundging his numbers! High oil prices and a sluggish Euro-zone economy were cited as reasons for the flop. Sterling was not affected by the pre-budget report, [...]

The ECB hiked interest rates by 0.25% to 2.25% last week, as was widely predicted. The Bank of England meet this Thursday, and are almost certain to leave UK interest rates unchanged. Then next week the FOMC meet, which should see another 0.25% added to US rates, so a busy ten days ahead for the [...]

Sterling continued to rally against the Euro yesterday, and the dollar remained firm as US manufacturing figures met expectations. We have a quieter day today, with non-farm payrolls the only big piece of data, at 13:30. GBP EUR – Support 1.4738 then 1.4700Resistance 1.4795/00 then 1.4830 GBP USD – Support 1.7260 then 1.7200Resistance 1.7315 then [...]

We have bundles of data out today, including UK PMI (09:30), the ECB meeting at 12:45, US Jobless claims at 13:30, ISM manufacturing at 15:00…etc…etc.. Sterling had a bounce yesterday after a report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development downgrading UK growth prospects to 1.7% from earlier estimates of 2.4%. You may be [...]