Exchange Rate Forecasts

We witnessed a significant day of market movement yesterday with the Dollar plunging to a yearly low against the majors following Ben Bernanke’s comments at the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. The Federal Reserve chairman gave the clearest indication yet that they are nearing the end of their current rate cycle after raising U.S interest [...]

There was some significant data released in the UK yesterday with GDP projecting that the economy accelerated to its fastest pace in a year during the first quarter, expanding 0.6% due in part to a revival in Industrial Production and an overall improvement in UK exports. However, without any significant British data released until Friday, [...]

The Euro has made significant gains in the past 24hrs with German Business Confidence unexpectedly rising to a 15-year high in April against forecasters predictions of a slight decline from March due to higher energy and oil prices. The ifo Index rose to 105.9, the highest level since April 1991, which has increased speculation that [...]

Initially, Sterling rallied yesterday on the release of UK Retail Sales data, which came out largely in line with expectations, showing a rise of 0.4% in March and British Mortgage lending increased by its largest amount in nearly two years last month, suggesting that the housing market continues to look buoyant, rising to £5.4 Billion [...]

In the past week, the Dollar has weakened significantly against the majors amid speculation that U.S economic growth will begin to wane into the second quarter and the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its current rate cycle. The Dollar traded down to a seven month low against the Euro last week and we [...]

Sterling weakened against the majors yesterday as UK inflation unexpectedly slowed to its weakest pace in more than a year as Consumer Prices rose 0.2% in March, putting the annual rate at 1.8% against the government’s target of 2%. As a result, Sterling traded down against the Dollar and the Euro as speculation increased that [...]

Sterling has enjoyed a mini-rally in the past 24hrs as the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee released the minutes of its last meeting, again showing a spilt of 8-1 in favour of keeping interest rates at 4.50% in April as Stephen Nickell voted for a quarter-point cut for the fifth month running. We briefly [...]

The Dollar has been suffering in the past week amid suggestions that economic growth will slow into the second quarter and yesterday we witnessed further evidence of a cooling housing market in the States as builders started work on the smallest number of new houses in a year last month, falling 7.8% to an annual [...]

Following on from last Thursday, Retail Sales in the U.S. rose by more than expected in March as an improving labour market and higher household incomes bolstered consumer spending with the average growth rate accelerating to its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2004. There is some significant data released in the U.S. this [...]

Sterling stood firm yesterday after the news that the number of Britons out of work and claiming benefits rose by almost double market expectations in March while UK Average Earnings in the three months to February climbed to 4.2% year-on-year against the 3.6% forecasted. The March claimant count showed an increase of 12,600 new claims [...]