Exchange Rate Forecasts

June, 2006

The Dollar’s seven day winning streak is shattered as the threat of higher interest rates may hamper economic growth

Thursday, June 15th, 2006

Yesterday represented a significant day of market movement and the Pound remained solid against the Euro and the Dollar despite weak UK unemployment data for May where the number of people claiming for jobless benefits rose to the highest level in over 4 years as the economic slowdown in the second half of last year [...]

Sterling may come under some pressure with UK jobless claims expected to reach the highest level in over 4 years

Wednesday, June 14th, 2006

There was some significant data released in the UK yesterday with inflation reaching a seven-month high in May as Consumer Prices gained 2.2% year-on-year, climbing 0.5% from April. The Pound received a relative boost on the release on the news as speculation intensified that the Bank of England would need to join the global round [...]

UK Inflation acclerates to 2.2% in May due to higher energy costs and the surging price of petrol

Tuesday, June 13th, 2006

The Pound made some significant gains against the Euro yesterday, rising 0.5% to close at 1.4650 last night due to a string of economic factors. Firstly, UK Factory gate inflation increased to 0.3% in May, pushing the annual rate upto 3% thanks largely to the rising price of raw materials and higher energy costs. Sterling [...]

The Dollar may strengthen further with key inflationary data both in Europe and the States expected to point to higher interest rates

Monday, June 12th, 2006

Following on from last week, the Dollar was given an unexpected boost on Friday as the U.S Trade Balance showed that the deficit in goods and services widened to £63.4 Billion in April primarily due to an increase in the cost of imported oil and a sharp rise in purchases of industrial machinery. However, the [...]

The ECB only lift rates by 25 basis points while UK interest rates remain unchanged at 4.50%

Friday, June 9th, 2006

Yesterday represented a significant day of events in Europe and the market has reacted to the news in a manner, which we anticipated in yesterday’s morning update. The European Central Bank met in Madrid at midday and elected to lift interest rates by 25 basis points to take their benchmark rate to 2.75%. However, in [...]

The Dollar breaks 1.8500 against Sterling and the Euro gains ahead of the ECB announcement

Thursday, June 8th, 2006

The U.S Dollar continued it’s three day winning streak yesterday as former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan made his first public statement since leaving the position earlier this year and testified to the Senate over concerns for oil dependence and economic risk. Following comments from Ben Bernanke and other Fed policy makers seemingly paving the [...]

UK Consumer Confidence remains near the six month low in May according to the Nationwide Building Society

Wednesday, June 7th, 2006

We witnessed a fairly quiet day in terms of data released yesterday and the market remained relatively stagnant but there was some positive news for the Pound as the BRC Retail Sales survey showed year-on-year growth of 3.6% and first quarter sales were up 2.7% against the same period last year, which was slightly ahead [...]

Bernanke’s testimony seemingly washes away the possibility of a pause at 5% interest rates this month

Tuesday, June 6th, 2006

The Pound came under renewed pressure yesterday and traded down against the Dollar and the Euro despite some positive UK data with the CIPS Services survey coming in slightly better than expected at 59.2 in May and the robust growth in the service sector is causing investors to speculate that the Bank of England will [...]

The Euro will strengthen significantly if the ECB raises interest rates by half a point

Monday, June 5th, 2006

Following the release of the latest FOMC minutes last week, the dollar advanced against the majors with speculation building that the Fed will need to lift borrowing costs for a 17th straight month in June in order to keep inflation in check. However, on Friday the Dollar dropped to a three week low against the [...]

The Dollar may make further gains against Sterling ahead of the monthly U.S Job report

Friday, June 2nd, 2006

In the past 48hrs, the Euro has been heavily boosted after the EU Index for economic sentiment unexpectedly rose to the highest level in five years, despite concerns over rising euro-zone interest rates and near-record petrol prices. There was further positive news for the Euro yesterday as growth in Manufacturing accelerated at the fastest pace [...]


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