The Pound made robust gains against the majors yesterday, rising 0.2% versus the Euro and by the close of trading last night had broken through the $2.00 barrier against the Dollar following a stronger-than-expected report on UK house prices. The Nationwide index showed that prices actually doubled expectations in June despite initial forecasts for prices to remain relatively unchanged at 10.5%. The Bank of England are scheduled to decide next week on UK interest rates and the report yesterday will increase the chance of a further quarter-point increase in July. Elsewhere, the Confederation of British Industry released their monthly survey on the pace of retail activity over the past month while the British Bankers’ Association reported that mortgage approvals rose unexpectedly in May. The Pound continued to make gains after the governor of the Bank of England publicly stated that the balance for inflation risks remain to the upside and gave a strong indication that a further quarter-point increase would to little to harm domestic consumption. In terms of economic data, the positive sentiment surrounding the Pound may continue this morning ahead of a report on UK consumer confidence and the final estimate of gross domestic product.
The Euro lost ground for the fourth consecutive trading session against the Dollar yesterday and also declined against the Pound following a mixed bag of European economic data. The M3 three month moving average was significantly higher than anticipated and showed that money supply into the Euro-zone threatens to increase the already persistent inflationary pressures. The chairman of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, has been criticised by a number of members from the governing council for placing too much emphasis on the impact on money supply on monetary policy. Nevertheless, the Euro continued to decline against the majors and may come under further pressure this morning following a host of economic reports. The EC sentiment index is expected to show that industrial and consumer confidence fell modestly in June as higher interest rates combined with the VAT increase at the start of the year begins to weigh on households’ disposable income.
The Dollar crashed through the $2.00 level against the Pound yesterday but continued to make modest gains versus the Euro following a particularly hawkish statement from the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke. Following the Fed’s decision to hold U.S interest rates at 5.25%, the accompanying statement seemed to suggest that policy makers had real concerns that inflation may fail to moderate over the coming months. It was the eighth consecutive month that U.S rates remained unchanged and speculation has been growing that the Fed would need to retain a tightening bias towards the end of the year as the economy continues to show signs of growth. The Dollar may also find a reprieve this afternoon as U.S consumer spending probably rose in May as higher wages helped supplement the rise in fuel costs.
Data Released 29th June UK 09:30 Mortgage Approvals (May) UK 10:00 Consumer Confidence (June) UK 09:30 Final GDP (Q1) EU 09:30 Flash HICP (June) EU 09:30 EC Business Climate Index (June) EU 10:00 EC Sentiment Index (June) – Industrial/Consumer Confidence U.S 13:30 Personal Income / Expenditure (May) U.S 14:45 Chicago PMI (June) U.S 15:00 Michigan Sentiment (June Final) U.S 15:00 Construction Spending (May)
The Pound failed to test the $2.00 level yesterday and by the close of trading last night had fallen 0.1% on the session despite a particularly hawkish rhetoric from the deputy governor of the Bank of England, Sir John Gieve. In the meeting from the BoE’s last policy meeting, Gieve along with the governor, Mervyn King, expressed concerns over rising inflationary pressures and actually voted to raise interest rates in June. In a speech in Guildford yesterday, the deputy governor emphasised that UK interest rates are still at a relatively low level and are helping to drive demand for loans and credit. The current benchmark lending rate of 5.50% is at the highest level in six years as inflation rose to a decade high in April and his comments yesterday will only serve to increase speculation that the MPC plan to raise rates again in July. However, the Pound failed to rally in the aftermath of his comments and actually traded lower following a report from the Confederation of British Industry. The survey showed that the pace of retail activity in the UK slowed significantly this month and provides an indication that consumer spending will continue to decline in response to higher borrowing costs. In terms of economic data, the focus today will fall on the Nationwide housing report, which is expected to show that prices remained relatively unchanged in June, rising to an annual rate of 10.5%.
The Euro failed to consolidate on the recent gains made against the Dollar yesterday and also remained largely unchanged versus the Pound following the distinct lack of economic data released in the Euro-zone. Nevertheless, the single currency may receive a timely boost this morning following the release of the M3 three-month moving average, which is expected to show that money supply into the Euro-zone actually rose to 10.5% in May. The chairman of the European Central Bank has been publicly criticised by other members of the governing council for placing too much emphasis on money supply as an indication of inflation. The ECB have raised interest rates on eight occasions since late 2005 despite consumer prices remaining below the 2.0% ceiling for the majority of 2007. Elsewhere, German unemployment may influence the market as the jobless rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.2%, the lowest level since records began in 1990.
Initially, the Dollar made modest gains against the Pound yesterday but a report on U.S durable goods orders scuppered any chance of close under 1.9950 as concerns grow on the strength of the projected rebound in business investment. Demand for durable goods fell 2.8% in May to represent the biggest drop in four months following a revised 1.1% increase in April. The decline in orders combined with the prolonged slump in housing will threaten the pace of U.S economic growth this year and may force the Federal Reserve to revise initial growth forecasts. Nevertheless, the region manufacturing surveys including the Philly Fed index and the Empire State Index have showed that growth in factory production continues to expand and that may encourage policy makers to retain a tightening bias in the tonight’s FOMC rate announcement.
The Dollar remained largely unchanged against the majors yesterday, holding just under the $2.00 level versus the Pound and closing last night 0.1% lower against the Euro following another round of poor U.S housing data. Sales of new homes fell 1.6% to an annual rate of 915,000 in May, which provides an indication that demand is still floundering as we enter the second half of the year. The report reflects recent surveys on existing home sales and housing starts, which have provided an insight into the faltering recovery in the sector as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 17-times in under two years. Elsewhere, the Dollar also remained firm despite a separate index on U.S consumer confidence, which unexpectedly fell this month to the lowest level since August following higher fuel prices and growing concerns over the labour market. The outlook for consumer spending is worrying as confidence amongst the U.S consumer sank to the lowest level in 10-months while sentiment would also have a significant bearing on monetary policy. Nevertheless, despite the decline in housing and weaker consumer confidence data, the Dollar actually made modest gains in the aftermath of the reports amid speculation that the Fed will retain a tightening bias in the monthly FOMC rate announcement tomorrow.
The Euro remained little changed against the Dollar and the Pound yesterday despite a host of recent reports that is beginning to illustrate the impact of a strong a Euro on the rest of the economy. The single currency has risen to a record level against the Dollar this year, which is beginning to weigh on European export growth as demand from the U.S falters. The only notable release yesterday centred around the European current account balance, which showed that the surplus actually turned into a deficit in the month of April as the Euro rose from 1.3350 to peak at 1.3682 against the ailing U.S Dollar.
The Pound also failed to consolidate on the recent gains made against the majors yesterday, closing well under the $2.00 level for the second consecutive session while holding steady above 1.4800 against the Euro. Despite the apparent lack of UK economic indicators yesterday, the focus today will surely fall on Tony Blair’s departure from Downing Street after 10-years as Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the Pound may come under some pressure later this morning following a report from the Confederation of British Industry with the survey expected to show another sharp decline in the volume of retail activity. However, if the distributive trades balance came in ahead of initial forecasts, it would bolster expectations that UK interest rates may reach 6% before the end of the year. Recent comments from a number of Bank of England policy makers have indicated that the pace of consumer spending would need to moderate in order for UK inflation to hit the government’s 2.0% target.
The Euro managed to claw back some modest gains against the Pound and also rose versus the U.S Dollar as German consumer confidence unexpectedly leaped to the highest level in six months in June. The index of sentiment jumped to a reading of 8.4 from 7.4 the previous month and suggests that increased confidence in the German economy is propelling consumer spending. Recent reports after provided an indication that growth in Europe’s largest economy may have peaked but with spending showing robust signs of growth and unemployment at a record low, German economic expansion may continue at the fastest pace in six years. That sentiment was echoed by the Ifo economic institute, who last week reported that German business confidence unexpectedly declined this month as exports and business investment waned. However, the Munich based institute yesterday raised its growth forecast from 1.9% last December to 2.6% this year while German economic growth is likely to hit 2.5% in 2008. The report provides an indication that the economy will continue to expand despite the introduction of the value-added tax increase at the start of the year and the inevitable drop in European exports.
Initially, the Pound continued to rise against the Dollar yesterday, testing the $2.00 level for the majority of the morning session before consolidating back towards the support at 1.9950. Earlier this year, the Pound reached the highest level against the U.S currency for 26-years at 2.0130 and there is a distinct possibility that we may retest that level amid speculation that the Bank of England will raise rates next month. Following the fundamental lack of UK economic data, the Pound also lost ground against the Euro, dropping 0.2% by the close of trading last night. Nevertheless, there is a number of key data releases over the remainder of the week with the Nationwide and Hometrack house price surveys taking centre stage. Both reports are expected to emphasise the robust pace of growth in the sector while the Bank of England’s report on UK mortgage approvals may prove slightly less positive.
By the close of trading last night, the Dollar remained virtually unchanged against the Euro and also consolidated back towards 1.9950 versus the Pound following the latest round of U.S housing data. Existing home sales fell to the lowest level in nearly four years in May, reinforcing concerns that the worst slump in over 17-years has yet to peak with purchases dropping 0.3% from April. A separate gauge of the report showed that the supply of unsold homes swelling the market jumped to the highest number in 15-years as weakening demand combined with a decline in home construction make the housing market the single biggest threat to U.S economic growth. Nevertheless, the report yesterday was almost in line with initial expectations and therefore, the data failed to provide any clear direction to investors. As a result, the focus today will fall heavily on the new homes sales report, which is expected to show that purchases also dropped in May. Following the unexpected jump in the number of new home sales in April, the latest round of housing data has all but ended the recent speculation of a recovery in demand.
The Dollar remained largely unchanged against the majors yesterday, dropping a modest 0.1% versus the Pound despite a host of positive economic reports, which provides a further insight into the renewed optimism in the U.S manufacturing sector. The Philly Fed index is just the latest regional survey to show substantial growth in factory activity over the past month as the survey actually tripled the initial forecasts by rising to a reading of 18.0 in June. The unexpected rise in production in the Philadelphia region saw the index increase to the highest level since April 2005 as new orders doubled and companies reduced their inventories to the lowest level in a year. Elsewhere, the Dollar also failed to make any significant gains as an index of leading economic indicators rose slightly more than expected in May and gave a promising upward revision for the previous month. However, the weekly jobless report showed that the number of people out of work and claiming benefits actually jumped to an annual rate of 324,000 amid concerns over a softening in the U.S labour market, which threatens to curtail the pace of economic expansion.
The negative sentiment surrounding the Euro continued yesterday as the single currency failed to make any gains against the Dollar despite a positive report on the European manufacturing and service industries. The Purchasing Manager’s index rose to a reading of 57.7 in the flash estimate for June amid record low unemployment and increased business investment. The fastest global growth in 30-years has provided a significant demand for European based goods, which has seen the economy accelerate at the fastest pace in over seven-years. The preliminary index of service sector growth, which accounts for two thirds of the economy, increased to a reading of 58.3 in June while growth in manufacturing also beat expectations with a figure above 50 indicating expansion. Nevertheless, the Euro was little changed in the aftermath of the report but may receive a timely boost this morning amid the release of the German Ifo sentiment index. The report is expected to illustrate that business confidence in Europe’s largest economy remained at a near record level in June despite the surprising drop in the ZEW survey earlier this week.
The Pound has made robust gains against both the Euro and the Dollar over the past week as a hawkish rhetoric from the governor of the Bank of England was combined with the minutes from the Bank of England’s last policy meeting where the MPC voted 5-4 in favour of holding rates this month. As a result, speculation has intensified that UK interest rates are set to rise by a further 25 basis points next month and subsequently, the Pound has risen to a fresh three-month high against the Euro. The UK currency also made modest gains against the Dollar yesterday following a report from the Confederation of British Industry. The Industrial trends survey showed that orders accelerated by more than expected in June, which indicates that the strength of the Pound is not currently weighing on overall demand. The report is just the latest round of economic data that suggests that the UK economy is continuing to show robust signs of growth and that is likely to lead to a further rate hike in either July or August.
The positive sentiment surrounding the Pound continued yesterday as the UK currency rose a further 0.3% against the Dollar and was up 0.2% versus the Euro by the close of trading last night following a pickup in UK house prices. Despite the pace of growth slipping to slowest pace in five months throughout London, prices gained 0.8% throughout the remainder of the UK with the annual rate increasing 13.2% from this stage last year. The report illustrates that while mortgage approvals have fallen, rising interest rates have yet to cool the housing market as property values accelerate at the fastest pace in almost three years. Elsewhere, the Pound managed to make further gains against the most of the major currencies as the Bank of England’s quarterly bulletin seemed to mirror recent comments from the governor, Mervyn King, and increase the chance of further monetary tightening in the near-to-medium term.
The Euro managed to edge modestly higher against the U.S Dollar yesterday but came under further pressure versus the Pound despite a host of hawkish commentaries from a number of ECB officials. Firstly, a member of the Central Bank’s governing council, Alex Weber, stated that risks to inflationary pressures remain a concern to policy makers while tightening interest rates wouldn’t affect the pace of economic growth. That sentiment was echoed by the chairman of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, who reiterated that faster growth in the global economy was exerting upward pressure on prices. As a result, the Euro advanced 0.1% against the Dollar on speculation that European interest rates may rise to 4.0% this year while the single currency may continue to make gains this morning amid the release of the ZEW survey for investor confidence. The index of investor and analyst expectations is forecast to top the highest level since June 2006 as growth in the German economy accelerated at the fastest pace in almost seven years.
The Dollar continued to slide against the majors yesterday as the inflation outlook moderated following the report on consumer prices, which came in weaker than expected in May. As a result, the Federal Reserve are likely to keep interest rates unchanged this year as pricing pressures continue to moderate while the economy expands at a moderate pace. The Dollar had been making robust gains early last week following the rapid increase in the treasury yield, which reached a five-year high on speculation that the Fed may need to raise rates towards year-end following a pick-up in manufacturing and recent reports that the slump in housing had peaked. However, a report last night exacerbated the slump in Dollar sentiment as the NAHB housing market index showed that homebuilding confidence was at the lowest level in nearly 16-years. In addition, the U.S currency may come under further pressure this afternoon as a separate report on the property market may show that builders started work on fewer homes than expected in May. U.S housing starts may fall to an annual rate of 1.472 million last month, modestly higher that the previous quarter where builders started work in the fewest number of homes since 1997.
The Pound remained largely unchanged against the majors yesterday, closing back under 1.9700 versus the U.S Dollar despite an initial positive move after a report showed that UK retail sales growth accelerated beyond expectations in May. Sales climbed 0.4% last month following a modest decline in April as lower unemployment, rising house prices and increased optimism over the pace of economic growth helped fuel consumer spending. The report comes in the aftermath of a speech from the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who signalled earlier this week that UK interest rates may need to rise at least once more this year. In addition, a report earlier this week showed that UK unemployment has reached the lowest level since September 2005 and with consumer confidence currently running at the highest level for 18-months, the likelihood of a rate hike in July or August seems almost certain.
However, the Pound failed to make any gains against both the Euro and the Dollar as a report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed that UK house prices rose at the slowest pace in a year last month. Prices have risen 10% in the space of 12 months and the report yesterday is just the latest indication that higher interest rates are beginning to weigh on the UK property market. The average cost of a home in the UK rose to £196,893 in the quarter through to May, increasing to an annual rate of 10.6% according to the UK’s biggest mortgage lender. Amid a sparse supply of economic data, the Pound may continue to trade down against the Euro today after closing last night under 1.4800 level.
The Dollar managed to consolidate against the majors yesterday, rising a further 0.1% versus the Pound and holding at an 11-week high against the Euro amid speculation that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten interest rates towards the end of the year. The U.S currency received a further boost as producer prices rose by more than anticipated in May as record fuel prices threatens a pick-up in inflation. Prices paid to U.S companies increased 0.9% last month and the report reflects recent comments from the Federal Reserve that inflation won’t moderate as previously forecast. There is a host of significant economic data released in the U.S this afternoon with the focus falling on the consumer price index, which is expected to show that a broader measure of inflation rose 0.6% in May. Elsewhere, the Dollar may continue to make gains against the majors as a separate report may show that sentiment remains strong in the industrial sector.
The renewed optimism for the Pound was severely tested yesterday as the UK currency fell 0.2% against the Dollar and a further 0.1% versus the Euro as a report on the labour market showed that wage growth remained subdued in the first quarter of the year. The annual growth rate of UK average hourly earnings fell to a 15-month low of 3.3% in April from 3.5% in February and suggests that pay growth is unlikely to fuel the already moderating inflationary concerns. Nevertheless, it seems that the focus of the Bank of England has shifted to other upside inflation risks as recent comments from the chairman of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, increased the possibility of a further rate hike this year. In addition, a separate gauge of the report showed that UK unemployment fell to the lowest level in over 18-months in May as the pace of economic expansion encourages companies to step-up hiring. From a technical perspective, the Pound may continue to decline against the Euro as a reversal back under 1.4800 could be seen as a ‘failed breakout’, leading to further downside movement back towards the support levels at 1.4700 and 1.4625. However, the focus this morning will fall on the UK retail sales report given that recent survey evidence have indicated that higher interest rates are beginning to impact on consumer demand.
The Euro continued to decline against the Dollar yesterday, falling a further 0.1% by the close of trading last night to the lowest level in 11-weeks following the a sparse supply of European economic data. The single currency may receive a timely boost this morning as the ECB monthly bulletin is expected to mirror the tone of the recent press conference and signal that the Central Bank may continue raising interest rates to ensure that risks to price stability do not materialize. Elsewhere, a separate report on the preliminary estimate of consumer prices is expected to show that inflation remained unchanged at an annual rate of 1.9% in May.
The Dollar continued to gather momentum yesterday, rising against both the Euro and the Pound as data revealed a sharp jump in U.S retail sales, which rose by the most in a year in May. The report has eased concerns that record fuel prices combined with falling home values would damage consumer sentiment, which has been pivotal in supporting economic growth this year. Sales increased almost double initial forecasts to 1.4% in May and reached the highest level in 17-months as robust growth in the labour market combined with rising wage growth helped cushion the blow from the significant jump in fuel costs. The report provides an indication that growth in the retail sector would continue to place upward pressure on the already elevated U.S bond yields and increase expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates towards the fourth quarter or the beginning of 2008. As a result, the Dollar rose for the sixth consecutive day against the Euro and peaked at the highest level in 11-weeks before trading off towards the close last night.
The Pound has managed to make robust gains against the majors this morning following a hawkish rhetoric from the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who has stated that the MPC may need to continue raising interest rates in the short-term. In a speech to business executives in Cardiff last night, King emphasised that the monetary policy committee will be closely studying the risks to price stability and said that if capacity pressures, pricing intentions and inflation expectations remain elevated then the MPC would need to “take further action”. Despite the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates at a six-year high in June, data due this morning is expected to show that UK inflation exceeded the government’s 2.0% target for the 13th consecutive month. The headline measure of the consumer price index may show that the annual rate of inflation moderated to 2.6% in May from 2.8% the previous month and may suggest that four interest rate increases since August have begun to cool the economy. The Pound had been in freefall against the Dollar but the speech from the governor of the Bank of England yesterday has managed to shift sentiment and if the report this morning shows that pricing pressures remained unchanged last month, the Pound may continue to make gains.
The recent positive sentiment surrounding the Dollar continued yesterday as the U.S currency rose modestly against both the Pound and the Euro by the close of trading last night. The sharp rise in bond yields last week combined with a number of hawkish statements from the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has pushed the Dollar higher against most major currencies as the threat of a U.S interest rate cut looks less likely. There is a sparse supply of U.S economic indicators released this afternoon with the focus falling on retail sales tomorrow and growth in the manufacturing sector later this week.
The Euro continued to decline against the Dollar yesterday, dropping 0.1% by the close of trading last night and has also come under significant pressure versus the Pound following the distinct lack of economic data released in the Euro-zone. French and Italian industrial production both unexpectedly declined in April as the strength of the Euro threatens to curb export demand. The regional reports yesterday are the latest indication that growth in the European economy, which has expanded at the fastest pace in nearly seven years, has finally peaked. Factory output in both France and Italy dropped 0.8% from March despite initial forecasts of a 0.2% rise in production. The Euro advanced to the highest level on record against the Dollar in April and considering the slowdown in the U.S economy, European based goods are becoming less competitive.
The Euro managed to make marginal gains against the Pound yesterday and also advanced 0.2% higher versus the U.S Dollar as we build up to the ECB interest rate announcement this lunchtime. The governing council are widely expected to lift interest rates by a further 25 basis points with the benchmark lending rate rising for the eighth time in little over a year to stand at 4.0%. Following a host of hawkish statements from a number of ECB officials, the market has already factored in a rate increase in June and therefore the focus will fall on the accompanying press conference and the statement from the chairman, Jean-Claude Trichet. Recently, several members of the governing council within the Central Bank have publicly criticised Trichet’s “over-reliance” on money supply as a gauge of economic performance and inflation. Nevertheless, the ECB are still expected to raise interest rates by a further quarter-point over the coming months and the Euro may rally if the statement provides an insight into the timing of the announcement. In terms of economic data, the single currency also received a boost yesterday as the Purchasing Manager’s index showed that European service industries expanded for the first time in four months in May. Growth in the sector, which represents the largest proportion of the economy, has stagnated in recent months as higher borrowing costs and the VAT increase in Germany weighed on consumer sentiment.
The strength of the Pound has been gathering momentum this week and yesterday the UK currency increased a further 0.1% against the U.S Dollar following the stronger-than-expected report on UK service sector growth. Activity in both the manufacturing and service sector has been accelerating in recent months and will only boost interest rates expectations after the prices paid component of the reports also made strong gains. However, a separate report from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply showed that growth in services remained unchanged in May while retail sales fell from 2.4% in April to just 1.8% in May. Nevertheless, the Pound continued to make gains as we build up to the Bank of England interest rate announcement tomorrow where the MPC are expected to hold rates at 5.50% in June. Elsewhere, a report from the Nationwide Building Society has also provided some support for the Pound as UK consumer confidence reached the highest level in 18-months in May. The sentiment index rose to a reading of 99.0, increasing for the fourth consecutive month as consumers became increasingly optimistic about the labour market and the strength of the economy.
The Dollar continued to come under pressure yesterday, dropping modestly against the Pound and falling close to a 3-week low versus the Euro despite a strong report on U.S service industries. The Institute of Supply Management showed that its index reached the highest level in a year last month, confirming that the weakness in the U.S Dollar has not just provided a boost to the manufacturing sector. The components measure of the ISM report also showed that prices paid, employment and new orders all made strong advances in May and provided an indication that service sector growth would continue to support U.S economic growth. Elsewhere, the chairman of Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, tried in vain to boost the ailing Dollar as his comments reiterated that the Fed expects the housing slump to continue this year while inflation risks remain a concern to policy makers. In short, the statement emphasised recent sentiment that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold at 5.25% for the remainder of 2007.
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