The Pound remained largely unchanged against the Euro yesterday but continued the downward move versus the Dollar despite a stronger-than-expected report on the UK housing market and evidence of a revival in mortgage approvals. Recent surveys from Rightmove plc and Nationwide have shown that house prices rose at the slowest pace in 15-months in June, which suggests that higher interest are beginning to take effect. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee are expected to leave UK interest rates unchanged at 5.75% this Thursday as policy makers await further evidence that higher borrowing costs are beginning to slow the economy. Many households face the daunting prospect of renewing fixed-rate mortgages at much higher levels with the Bank of England expected to lift UK interest rates to 6.0% over the coming months. As a result, we can expect a significant squeeze on consumer spending and the Gfk gauge of confidence this morning will provide a timely insight on sentiment. Elsewhere, the Pound may continue to decline against the Dollar as we fall towards 2.0200 following last week’s 26-year high amid the release of the CBI distributive trades balance, which is expected to fall to a reading of 15.0 this month.
The recent recovery of the U.S dollar continued yesterday on speculation that the recent turmoil in the subprime mortgage and credit markets would spread to other economies. Despite a spate of negative economic reports, which seemed to suggested that the slide in the property market is showing few signs of peaking, the Dollar remained resilient and made robust gains against the Pound following a 26-year low of 2.0650. Money market have been pricing in a cut in U.S interest rates in the near-to-medium term and today brings the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditure deflator, which is expected to remain unchanged at 1.9%.
The Euro staged a dramatic rebound against the Dollar yesterday and managed to remain firm versus the Pound despite a host of weaker economic data. French producer price inflation and retail sales for July deteriorated, which provides further evidence that the overwhelming strength of the Euro is finally weighing on economic growth. Nevertheless, the single currency stood firm amid increased speculation of a surprise ECB press conference this Thursday. The chairman of the Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to keep European interest rates unchanged at 4.0% but investors will focus on the tone and language used in the accompanying press conference for an insight into the possibility of a rate hike in September. In terms of economic data, the Euro may continue to make gains against the Dollar this morning as the unemployment rate is expected to remain at the low of 7.0% while the EC sentiment index may point to robust growth in consumer and industrial confidence.
The Pound rose to yet another 26-year high against the Dollar yesterday, rising 0.3% on the session before easing back towards 2.0620 by the close of trading last night. The UK currency also made strong gains versus the Euro and briefly traded above 1.4925 for the first time since February despite an unexpected drop in the CBI Industrial trends survey. The quarterly report showed that UK industrial output dropped back into negative territory this month as the overwhelming appreciation of the Pound begins to hamper overseas demand. Nevertheless, Sterling continued to rally against the majors on increased speculation that the Bank of England look set to raise interest rates for the sixth time in twelve months in August. Despite, the less hawkish voting pattern of the most recent monetary policy meeting and the weakness of recent economic reports, the Pound has remained resilient, rising to the highest level against the Dollar since June 1981. Some investors will argue that the prospect of UK rates rising to 6.0% is already well factored in to current market movement and therefore the recent strength of the Pound can be attributed to merger and acquisition flow.
The Euro rose to another record high against the ailing U.S Dollar yesterday but fell a further 0.2% versus the Pound as growth in the Europe’s manufacturing and service industries slowed more than initial forecasts in July. Growth in the sectors, which accounts for two thirds of the economy, accelerated despite the Euro’s dramatic appreciation against the Dollar this year and significantly higher oil prices. The combined Purchasing Managers’ index fell to a reading of 57.3 from 57.8 in June with a figure above 50 indicating expansion. However, the Euro’s 7% surge against the Dollar this year has eroded the competitiveness of European export, which have previously driven the economy to the fastest pace of expansion in seven-years. In addition, rising oil prices may also weigh on domestic spending and help cool economic growth, which may well have an influence on the ECB’s monetary policy.
The sustained and unrelenting decline of the U.S Dollar continued yesterday but there are signs this morning that Cable may have peaked above 2.0600 yesterday as the market fell sharply below that level overnight. The Dollar has also fallen to a fresh record low against the Euro over the past trading session and may struggle to make any significant gains this afternoon amid fears over the impact of the turmoil in the U.S subprime mortgage and credit markets. In terms of economic data, the Dollar may come under further pressure today following the release of the latest round of U.S housing data. Existing home sales probably fell for the fourth consecutive month in June as the worst slump in over 17-years continues to show few signs of abating. Sales of previously owned homes are expected to fall to an annual rate of 5.86 million last month, the lowest level since April 2003 as higher interest rates are declining home values discourage buyers.
The dramatic appreciation of the Pound continued yesterday as the UK currency rallied to a fresh 26-year against the Dollar and also rose 0.4% versus the Euro following a stronger-than-expected report on UK inflation. Consumer prices increased 2.4% year-on-year in June, which was the lowest in eight months, after gaining 2.5% in May but initial expectations had led some investors to price in a more substantial fall towards 2.3%. The Bank of England have raised the benchmark lending rate on five occasions since August last year, taking interest rates to the highest level in six years at 5.75% in order to bring inflation back towards the 2.0% target. However, the price of crude oil has increased 14% from the start of June and is holding above $70 a barrel, the highest price in almost a year. In addition, a separate gauge of the report showed that the retail price index, which includes mortgage payments, rose 4.4% in June compared with 4.3% the previous month and suggests that the Bank of England will need to continue raising interest rates in the near-term. As a result, the Pound has strengthened to trade above 2.0500 against the Dollar this morning and has also risen well above 1.4800 versus the Euro ahead of the minutes from the Bank of England’s last policy meeting.
The Euro failed to capitalise on the sustained Dollar weakness yesterday and also fell significantly against the Pound as German investor confidence fell by the most in 10 months in July. The ZEW Centre for European Economic Research said its index of investor expectations fell to a reading of 10.4 this month, the lowest level since March, as the Euro’s dramatic appreciation against the Dollar weighs heavily on export growth. The single currency has recently rose to the strongest level on record against the U.S currency and concerns are growing within the ECB that growth in Euro-zone exports, which has propelled the economy to the fastest pace of expansion since 2000, will continue to decline. In addition, rising oil prices and credit costs are squeezing producer prices and that may prompt the ECB to raise borrowing costs beyond 4.0% in order to contain inflation.
The Dollar dropped to a fresh 26-year low against the Pound yesterday and investors are anticipating further losses in the near-term amid a mixture of sub-par U.S economic data and hawkish sentiment from the Bank of England. The decline of the Dollar continued to gather momentum yesterday as the U.S currency fell to 2.0500 versus the Pound despite robust growth in the manufacturing sector as factory production rose above initial forecasts. Elsewhere, the headline TICs numbers also exceeded expectations on a record inflow of foreign investment in May, which supplements the surprising rise in the U.S trade deficit over the same period. Nevertheless, the Dollar failed to find any support as a report on producer prices showed that factory-gate inflation slowed in the month of June, reaffirming suggestions that the Federal Reserve can hold rates for the remainder of the year. The report may provide an insight in the consumer price index later today, which is also expected to remain relatively soft last month.
Data Released 18th July
UK 09:30 Claimant Count Unemployment (June)
UK 09:30 Average Hourly Earnings (3 months to May)
The positive momentum surrounding the Pound continued yesterday as the UK currency rose to yet another 26-year high against the Dollar and looks to set to continue making gains amid increased speculation that UK interest rates will rise to 6.0% by the end of the year. Despite the fundamental lack of economic data, the Pound rose a further 0.4% against the Dollar and remained largely unchanged versus the Euro by the close of trading last night. In terms of economic data, the Pound may receive a further boost this morning ahead of the RICS house price balance, which is expected to show that prices remained fairly elevated in June. The Bank of England have raised UK interest rates to the highest level since 2001 over the past 11-months but recent surveys suggest that house price inflation continues to accelerate. Elsewhere, the BCC quarterly manufacturing survey is expected to show that growth in the sector accelerated in the three months to June although the overwhelming strength of the Pound threatens the pace of UK exports.
The Euro reached a record high against the Dollar on Tuesday and that trend looked set to continue yesterday following a particularly hawkish rhetoric from an executive board member of the ECB’s governing council. Jurgen Stark gave a speech in Frankfurt where he reiterated that the Euros 10% appreciation against the Dollar this year reflects the overall strength of the Euro-zone economy. His comments seemed to suggest that policy makers were concerned over the incredible strength of the single currency and the subdued effect that it would have on European exports. Sales abroad has accounted for the fastest pace of economic growth in seven years and recent reports have indicated that growth in Euro-zone exports is fairly muted. Nevertheless, the Euro rallied against the Dollar and remained largely unchanged versus the Pound ahead of a host of significant economic reports. The ECB monthly bulletin is expected to mirror the tone of the press conference last week while Euro-zone industrial production may expand 1.0% in May.
The Dollar has been under intense pressure against the majors this week, dropping to the lowest level in over a quarter of a century versus the Pound and falling to a record low against the Euro amid a host of negative economic data. In addition, recent reports have indicated that inflation risks to remain to the upside but the slump in the property market is expected to keep U.S interest rates on hold at 5.25% for the remainder of the year. The Dollar may come under further pressure this afternoon and extend the recent losses against both the Euro and the Pound following the release of U.S trade data. The deficit in goods and services may widen to $60 billion in May despite the overwhelming weakness of the U.S currency, which should provide a boost to exports.
The Pound continued to make substantial gains against the Dollar yesterday, rising 0.6% on the session to close last night at the strongest level in over 26-years. Earlier in the day, the positive sentiment surrounding the Pound continued as UK retail sales increased by the most in three months in June, proving that consumer spending is resisting rising interest rates. The report from the British Retail Consortium showed that sales rose 3.0% from this stage last year following a 1.8% increase in May and it can be argued that consumer spending is buoyant in anticipation of further rate hikes to come. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee have elected to raise borrowing costs on five separate occasions in under a year and have recently indicated that another quarter-point rise may be necessary over the coming months.
Consumer price inflation, which accelerated to the fastest pace in a decade in April, has been showing signs of moderation but policy makers feel that interest rates will need to rise once more in order for inflation to come back towards the 2.0% target. The recent speculation surrounding UK monetary policy combined with sustained Dollar weakness has sent the Pound crashing through the $2.0200 level and to the strongest level of exchange since June 1981. Therefore, Dollar buyers would be well placed to take advantage of the current rate or at least place a stop order above the $2.00 level to ensure against a reversal.
The Dollar also slumped against the Euro yesterday, dropping to the lowest level on record versus the single currency as profit warnings in the U.S heightened concerns over the housing market, subprime mortgage defaults and consumer sentiment. The well documented slump in the U.S property market has been the primary factor for a slowdown in the economy. Therefore, confidence in the U.S currency was further undermined yesterday as an announcement from Standard & Poor, the credit rating agency, said that it may be cutting ratings on almost $12 billion on bonds backed by subprime mortgages. The news sparked a mass sell off of securities on concerns that the rating cut will have broader implications for U.S and global markets. Elsewhere, even a speech from the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, failed to provide a boost to the ailing U.S currency as he failed to give any direction on the course of U.S interest rates.
The Pound rose modestly against the Dollar yesterday and also made significant gains versus the Euro following a report on producer prices, which showed that UK factory-gate inflation rose for a seventh consecutive month. One of the primary concerns within the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee has been the consistent increase in producer prices, which are thusly feeding through to the already elevated inflationary pressures. Output prices climbed 0.2% last month following robust growth in May after a significant rebound in the price of oil and higher food costs. The report will only serve to increase speculation that the Bank of England will need to raise UK interest rates to 6.0% by the end of the year in order to bring inflation back towards target. Elsewhere, a speech from MPC member, David Blanchflower, did little to dampen Sterling sentiment as he stated at a conference in Berlin that growth in personal income is currently showing few signs of stoking inflation. His comments yesterday will provide an insight into the minutes from the Bank of England’s last policy meeting after Blanchflower opposed a rate hike in June. In terms of economic data, the focus this morning will fall on a report from the British Retail Consortium, which is expected to show that UK retail sales remained strong last month.
The Euro remained largely unchanged against the Dollar yesterday but fell a further 0.3% versus the Pound despite a host of positive economic reports coming out of Europe’s largest economy. The German trade surplus increased to 17.5 billion in May following an unexpected drop in Euro-zone exports, which provides an indication that growth in the economy may have peaked. Following the Euro’s 10% appreciation against the Dollar this year combined with slowing global economic growth, demand for German based goods may be slowing, which threatens to curtail the fastest pace of expansion in nearly seven years. Nevertheless, a larger drop in German imports drove the overall trade surplus higher while a separate report on industrial production fell in line with initial expectations.
Following a sparse supply of economic data, the Dollar fell 0.2% against the Pound by the close of trading last night and thusly failed to consolidate on Friday’s robust non-farm payrolls numbers. Dollar sentiment has been further hampered by renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep U.S interest rates on hold for the remainder of the year ahead of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The topic of the conference should centre around inflation and with oil prices holding solidly above $70 a barrel, the risks to price stability seem to clearly skewed to the upside. Depending on the tone and language used in the statement, the Dollar may find some support as Benernake carefully emphasises that inflation remains the single biggest concern to policy makers in cutting rates this year. A recent survey on the U.S economy has reflected that sentiment as growth will continue to gather momentum this year without stoking inflation.
Following on from last week, the Pound rose to the highest level in 26-years against the ailing U.S Dollar as the Bank of England raised UK interest rates for the fifth time in under a year and to the highest level since 2001. The nine-strong monetary policy committee, led by the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, elected to lift rates to 5.75% in order to bring inflation back towards the 2.0% target. The Pound rallied strongly in the build up to the announcement, rising to the strongest level since June 1981 on speculation that the MPC would need to lift rates once more before the turn of the year. An index of factory-gate inflation stayed close to the highest level since 1999 last month while recent surveys suggest that house price growth will continue to expand at a robust pace. Therefore, the focus this morning will fall largely on the latest round of producer price inflation, which is expected to show that output prices rose to annual rate of 2.6% last month. Elsewhere, the UK global trade balance may show that the deficit in goods and services narrowed from £6.3 billion in April to £6.00 billion in May.
The Euro rose to a near record high against the Dollar last week and also made gains versus the Pound despite the ECB’s decision to leave European interest rates on hold at 4.0%. However, in the accompanying press conference, the chairman of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, signalled that the governing council are prepared to raise the benchmark lending rate for the ninth time in under two years with the next likely rise coming in September. The tone and language used in the statement seemed to suggest that the Central Bank remains adamant that borrowing costs are still low enough to propel economic growth while policy makers must “act in a firm and timely manner to ensure that risks to price stability do not materialize.” The hawkish stance from the ECB can be derived from the renewed confidence in the German economy and a host of economic reports this week will underline the performance of Europe’s largest economy. The Euro has remained firm against the majors this morning despite a surprisingly negative report on German export growth, which unexpectedly fell in May. Sales abroad declined 0.7% from a revised 0.9% rise in April and the report is just the latest indication that growth in the German economy may have peaked.
Following on from last Friday, the Dollar had found some support against the majors and managed to claw back some significant gains against both the Euro and the Pound following the release of the monthly U.S job report. Employers added 132,000 workers to payrolls in June while average hourly earnings accelerated and unemployment held near the lowest level in six years. The increase in employment followed a larger than expected gain in May and the report provides an indication that the U.S job market will continue to support economic growth amid the worst slump in housing for over 17-years. Growth in personal income is boosting consumer spending in the wake of near-record fuel prices and falling home values while host of retail data this week is expected to underline that sentiment. U.S retail sales is expected to show that the annual pace of growth accelerated from 4.5% in May to 5.2% in June as the report provides an insight into the pace of personal consumption in the second quarter.
The Pound declined against the Dollar and the Euro yesterday as Bank of England policy makers raised UK interest rates for the fifth time in 11-months and to the highest level in six years at 5.75%. The nine-strong monetary policy committee voted that a further 25 basis point hike would be necessary in order to curb inflation, which has stayed way above the 2.0% target and increases the chances of a further quarter-point rise later in the year. UK inflation has risen to the highest level in a decade this year while robust growth in the housing market combined with strong consumer spending has powered the fastest economic growth in three years. In the aftermath of the rate announcement, the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, released a statement that said “risks to price stability still lie to the upside.” As a result, the hawkish sentiment from policy makers has raised speculation that UK interest rates will rise to 6% by the end of the year on concerns over rising factory-gate inflation and house price growth. Nevertheless, the Pound declined against the Euro in the aftermath of the announcement and may fall against the Dollar for the second consecutive day amid the release of the monthly U.S job report. Euro and Dollar buyers would be well placed to take advantage of the current rate before further downside movement over the course of the day.
The Euro managed to consolidate on the recent gains made against the Dollar and also rose 0.2% versus the Pound despite the ECB’s decision to hold interest rates at 4.0%. The outcome of the meeting was widely anticipated but the focus would fall on the accompanying press conference where the chairman of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, gave a strong indication that interest rates may need to rise further in September to prevent economic growth from fuelling inflation. A number of members from the ECB’s governing council have recently stated at the current benchmark lending rate was still low enough to boost economic expansion. The chairman has also been criticised of late for placing too much emphasis on the impact of money supply growth as a gauge of inflationary pressures. In the statement yesterday, Trichet failed to strike the sort of hawkish rhetoric that some investors were anticipating and omitted the term “strong vigilance” from the press conference. The specific tone and language used by the chairman has been the same in each of the prior months to a rate increase and therefore, we expect the ECB to keep rates steady until September.
The Dollar made unexpected gains against the Pound yesterday as growth in the U.S service sector surpassed initial forecasts and accelerated to the fastest pace in over a year last month. The ISM index of non-manufacturing rose to a reading of 60.7 in June from 59.7 the previous month and suggests that the U.S economy will continue to grow at a moderate pace this year. Growth in the service sector, which accounts for nearly 90% of the economy, is supplementing the worst slump in housing for almost 20 years and may keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates over the next 6-months. Elsewhere, the Dollar managed to sustain the early momentum as a separate report showed that ADP employer services added more workers to payrolls than expected in June. The private report, which provides an insight into the non-farm payroll numbers this afternoon, showed that companies added 150,000 new workers to payrolls last month, the biggest monthly increase in seven months. The Dollar may continue to make gains this afternoon ahead of the monthly U.S job report, which is expected to show that wage growth accelerated while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.5%.
The Pound advanced to a fresh 26-year high against the Dollar yesterday, trading as high as $2.0207 on expectations that the Bank of England are poised to raise UK interest rates tomorrow and signal further increases over the coming months. Elsewhere, the Pound stood 0.1% higher against the Euro by the close of trading last night as investors speculate that policy makers will lift rates to 6.00% by year-end as inflationary pressures remain to the upside. The Pound has gained 3.1% against the Dollar this year with the support for the UK currency based largely on the divergence in interest rate outlooks between the UK and the U.S. The monetary policy committee has raised rates twice this year while the Federal Reserve have left borrowing costs on hold at 5.25%, which has sent the Pound to the highest level against the Dollar since June 1981. In terms of economic data, UK house prices accelerated faster than expected in June as the average cost of home rose 0.4% following a 0.3% increase in May. The report will only fuel expectations of an interest rate hike tomorrow as growth in the housing market continues to gather momentum despite rising borrowing costs. Elsewhere, the Pound may continue to make gains against the Dollar and the Euro this morning as the CIPS services survey may show that growth in the sector continued to expand.
The Euro fell modestly against the majors yesterday dropping 0.1% versus both the Pound and the Dollar as a spate of economic reports came out largely in line with initial forecasts. Euro-zone unemployment remained largely unchanged from the previous month as the jobless rate held steady at 7.1% while a gauge of producer price inflation showed that prices rose 0.3% on the month in May. The single currency may find some support this morning as the Purchasing Managers’ index on Euro-zone service sector growth is expected to follow the recent manufacturing survey. Growth in services, which accounts for the largest proportion of the economy, is forecast to accelerate to a reading of 58.3 from 57.3 in April with a figure above 50 indication expansion. However, the Euro may struggle to make any further gains as a separate report may show that European retail sales failed to advance in May as rising interest rates and higher fuel prices threatens the pace of consumer spending.
The Dollar plummeted to a fresh 26-year low against the Pound yesterday as U.S durable goods orders fell less than anticipated in May with orders falling 0.5% from April. The report from the Commerce department reiterated that a pick-up in business investment will be necessary over the coming months in order to help the economy supplement the lingering slump in the property market. Elsewhere, a separate report showed that Pending home sales of previously owned properties unexpectedly declined in May as first-time buyers struggle with higher lending rates. The index of purchase agreements dropped a further 3.5% to a reading of 97.7, which represents the lowest level in over five years. The report follows recent data that suggests the slump in housing, which threatens to curtail the pace of economic expansion, is showing few signs of abating going into the third quarter. Dollar buyers would well placed to work a moving a stop order in the market to product against a retracement back towards the $2.00 level.
The Pound lost ground against the Euro yesterday dropping 0.4% by the close of trading last night although the UK currency rose for the sixth consecutive day versus the Dollar and reached the highest level 26-years. Growth in the UK manufacturing sector unexpectedly slowed in June, which suggests that higher interest rates and a strong Pound are beginning to weigh on demand for UK exports. The CIPS survey showed that growth in the sector surprisingly slipped to a reading of 54.3 in June from a revised 54.7 the previous month and although a figure above 50 indicates expansion, the pace of growth in factory production seems to be slowing. The Bank of England have recently expressed concerns that faster economic growth is likely to encourage companies to continue raising prices and thusly fuelling the current inflationary pressures. Therefore, the Bank of England are widely expected to lift UK interest rates for the fifth time since August and increase the pressure on manufacturers, who are already struggling with the Pound’s 9% appreciation against the Dollar over the past year. Dollar buyers would well placed to take advantage of the current rate and will be able to achieve the most attractive rate of exchange since September 1981.
The Euro rose to within a whisker of the April record high against the Dollar yesterday and also made robust gains versus the Pound as manufacturing growth in the Euro-zone accelerated by more than initially expected in June. The Purchasing Managers’ index of factory output rose to a reading of 55.6 last month and underpinned expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates beyond 4.00%. Over the past five years, the global economy has expanded at the fastest pace in over 30-years and demand from the U.S has heavily boosted European exports, which have driven economic growth to the quickest pace since 2000. Elsewhere, the ECB are expected to continue monetary tightening as the recent EC sentiment index showed that business and consumer confidence remained close to a six-year high this month. In addition, the Euro may continue making gains against the majors this morning as a report on the labour market is expected to show that unemployment fell to a fresh six-year low in May.
The U.S Dollar fell against most leading currencies yesterday, dropping to the lowest level in over a quarter of a century versus the Pound amid speculation that U.S interest rates will remain on hold throughout the remainder of the year. The Dollar declined heavily despite a report from the Institute of Supply Management, which showed that U.S manufacturing growth accelerated to the highest level in over a year in June. The ISM index rose to a reading of 56.0 from 55.0 in May but the recent upturn in manufacturing is offset by concerns over slowing consumer spending and prolonged weakness in the housing market. The Dollar fell considerably against both the Euro and the Pound yesterday and that trend may continue this afternoon following a report from the Commerce department. U.S durable goods orders are expected to fall for the first time in four months in May with bookings dropping a massive 1.2% following a 0.3% rise in April.
by Adam Solomon
Sterling / Euro and US Dollar
The Pound made significant gains against a basket of currencies yesterday, rising through $1.56 against the Dollar to the highest level in five-months, while the UK currency also re-visited the resistance level at 1.20 versus the Euro. The Australian Dollar has declined heavily against the Pound and U.S... Read more
Daily Exchange Rate Forecast – July 28th
by Adam Solomon
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The Pound rallied to a fresh five-month high against the U.S Dollar this morning, while the UK currency also made strong gains versus the majority of the 16 most actively traded currencies. Sterling hit a high of 1.5575 in London, as global risk appetite continues to improve, diminishing... Read more
Turkish Lira Exchange Rate Forecast
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The much awaited European bank stress tests were completed on Friday. All major banks passed the tests including the four major UK banks that took part. Also giving the pound a boost on Friday was a strong second quarter GDP figure. Growth... Read more
New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
by Jon Beddell
Foreign Currency Market Update – GBP / NZD Update
The pound bounced by seven cents from July 13th to July 19th, but gave back those gains last week, making a new four week low on Thursday even as UK retail sales data for June beat expectations. Things looked a little better on Friday.... Read more
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