The recent downside volatility surrounding the Pound continued yesterday as the UK currency, still reeling from news that consumer price inflation had remained unchanged in November, succumbed to reports that Bank of England policy makers voted unanimously to cut interest rates this month.
The nine-member monetary policy committee all elected to lower the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points amid renewed concerns over a second credit crunch and recent evidence to suggest that the housing market is slowing.
In addition, the furore surrounding the Northern Rock fiasco has severely tested UK consumer sentiment, which has driven the economy to the fastest pace of expansion since 2004.
The tone and language used by the governor of the BoE, Mervyn King, seems to suggest that potential risks to economic growth outweighed the short-term threat of inflation.
The first unanimous reduction since the months that followed the September 11 terrorist attacks is designed to protect against any further market volatility.
The Pound has declined heavily against the majors and dropped under the $2.00 level for the first time in three months and looks set to test the support at 1.9880.
The negative sentiment surrounding the Pound saw the UK currency plummet against most of the 16 most actively traded currencies and further downside movement is likely in the near-term amid increased speculation that policy makers will continue lowering interest rates in the New Year.
After rising to within a whisker of the 1.5000 level, the Euro has gradually declined against the Dollar over the past week and continues to trade in a range versus Sterling as the ECB’s staunchly hawkish stance on monetary policy leaves the market guessing on the future outlook.
The tone and language used in the accompanying statement earlier this month seemed to suggest that the Central bank remains concerned with rising inflationary pressures and that sentiment was echoed in a statement from the ECB chairman yesterday.
Although, Trichet continues to stoke concerns surrounding inflation and the idea that there is no room to begin cutting interest rates, the ECB’s decision to loan €350 billion to aid financial markets indicates there is no room for a rise either.
In terms of economic data, the Euro struggled to make gains against the Dollar yesterday as German business confidence fell to the lowest level in nearly two years in December.
Rising credit costs combined with higher oil prices and a strong Euro threatens to curb economic growth in the region as the business climate index declined to a reading of 103.0.
The resilience of the Pound has surprised many traders in recent weeks as the UK currency held stubbornly above 2.0100 versus the Dollar and clung to the 1.4000 level against the Euro following the Bank of England’s decision to lower interest rates for the first time in two years. Concerns over a renewed credit crunch and slowing economic growth has seen a shift in sentiment within the MPC as policy makers cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.50%. It can be argued that the Pound stood firm in the wake of the decision, principally because the market interpreted the move as a one off while the Fed’s policy is firmly set towards further monetary easing in the months ahead. That sentiment was further emphasised in a report last week on UK factory-gate inflation as the output component of the producer price index for November accelerated to the fastest annual pace in 16 years. The monetary policy committee must balance slowing economic growth and rising inflationary pressures and that has prompted speculation that the Bank won’t engage in further monetary easing without due cause. Recent reports have indicated that the decade long housing boom is coming to an end as house prices failed to rise over the past month while growth in UK service industries contracted for the first time this year. In addition, the Pound came under further pressure yesterday amid reports that a broader measure of inflation remained unchanged last month. The UK consumer price index held steady at an annual rate of 2.1%, still marginally above the government’s 2.0%, while the core rate of inflation actually cooled to match the weakest reading in well over a year. The focus this morning will inevitably fall on the minutes from the Bank of England’s last policy meeting and we can expect further downside sterling movement if policy makers indicate that further rate cuts are needed over the coming months.
The positive sentiment surrounding the European economy has seen the Euro rally to a record high against the Dollar in recent weeks and also achieve the highest level in over 4-years versus the Pound as higher inflation offsets concerns over slowing growth. The single currency remained largely unchanged against the majors for a second consecutive session yesterday as the market continues to wind down for the Festive period. The sole piece of economic data released in the Euro-zone did little to alter sentiment as the trade balance figures were significantly above initial forecasts and provided further evidence that demand from overseas is fuelling European exports and supporting the economy despite the overwhelming appreciation of the Euro this year.
The Dollar has been subject to speculation of further monetary easing over the coming months and concerns that the dire situation of the U.S housing market may send the economy into recession. Nevertheless, the U.S currency stood largely unchanged against the majors despite a dismal report on housing starts for November where building permits plummeted to the lowest level in 14-years as a number of unsold home flood the market and limit demand for new builds. The Federal Reserve have lowered interest rates by 1 percentage point in just three months and with further cuts anticipated in the medium term, growth in the housing sector may well pick up by the end of 2008. However, the overwhelming decline in housing starts and building permits failed to match initial forecasts of a greater fall and so the market focused on comments made by Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher, who noted that monetary policy developments should provide a boost to the U.S economy over the next year.
The surprisingly positive movement of the Pound over the past week has seen the U.K currency remain largely unchanged against the Euro while consolidating on the recent gains made versus the Dollar despite the Bank of England’s decision to lower interest rates for the first time in two years.
The majority of the market expected a reduction in the benchmark lending rate this month but a host of economic reports released this week have shown that UK producer price inflation is rising at the fastest annual pace since 1991 amid record high food and energy costs.
Rising prices and the threat of a renewed crisis in credit has all but diminished consumer sentiment as spending drove the UK economy to the fastest pace of expansion in 3-years.
Nevertheless, the rising pace of inflation will be of concern to policy makers and that was reflected in the tone of the accompanying statement where the MPC stopped short of paving the way for a series of rate cuts over the next year.
As a result, the Pound remained resilient against the majors and received a further boost yesterday as UK unemployment fell by more than double initial forecasts and to the lowest level since 1975 as growth in the labour market continues to offset concerns over housing.
The number of jobless claims last month dropped by 11,100 from October and that has propelled the economy to expand 3.2% in the fourth quarter and continue the strongest pace of growth in seven years.
The Dollar revered much of the gains made against the Euro yesterday while also closing above 2.0400 versus the Pound as global equity markets stabilised in the wake of the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by just 25 basis points.
In terms of economic data, the negative sentiment surrounding the outlook for the U.S economy continued amid the release of the trade balance, which showed that the deficit in goods and services widened in October as the value of imported oil rose to a record level.
Despite the obvious weakness in the Dollar over that period, record high energy costs pushed up the price of imports while export growth increased 0.9% from the previous month.
Nevertheless, the gap in trade grew 1.2% to $57.8 billion while the deficit with China was the biggest ever recorded and yet excluding fuel, the trade imbalance was the smallest since 2004 as a weaker Dollar increased demand from overseas.
The focus today will fall on the U.S retail report, which is expected to show that sales increased in November as incentives and higher wages helped the consumer cope with near record fuel costs and falling home values.
Data Released 13th December
UK 09:30 Bank of England / GFK Inflation Attitude Survey
The tension surrounding the FOMC rate announcement last night saw traders tentatively place bets on the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in U.S interest rates as the Dollar remained little changed against the majors in the build-up to the decision.
However, the Federal Reserve decided to lower interest rates by just 25 basis points and policy makers have cut the benchmark lending rate by 1 percentage point over the past three months as the U.S economy stands on the brink of recession.
Only a minority of the market anticipated a larger reduction in rates but the tone of the accompanying statement seemed to suggest that policy makers still expect the economy to expand next year and are therefore reluctant to aggressively alter monetary policy.
The Federal Open Market committee took the decision to lower U.S interest rates to 4.25% and said that three months of monetary easing should promote “moderate growth”.
Rising energy costs have pushed inflationary pressures to the upside but the U.S economy is slowing to a degree that has seen the Fed drop their assessment that risks to economic growth and inflation were almost the same.
The cautious stance portrayed in the FOMC statement saw U.S stocks and carry trades plummet but the Dollar may continue to make gains in the short-term before further rate cuts are likely in the New Year.
The Euro failed to consolidate on the recent gains made against the majors as reports in Germany showed that investor confidence had dropped by more than initial forecasts in December and reached the lowest level in nearly 15-years.
The ZEW Centre for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations dropped to the lowest level since January 1993 while European stocks fell for the first time in five days.
The decline in sentiment is in stark contrast to the Ifo index earlier this month as the losses linked to the U.S subprime mortgage crisis combined with record high oil prices and the strongest Euro in history is hurting companies’ expansion.
The report also showed that investors expect the credit crunch to continue into 2008 and that may keep the ECB from changing monetary policy in the near-to-medium term.
Prior to the FOMC rate announcement, the Pound had continued to make modest gains against the Dollar and by the close of the European trading session, the UK currency looked poised to trade higher for the fourth straight trading session.
The Pound strengthened following a report from the Office of National Statistics, which showed that the UK trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in October. The gap in goods and services contracted to £7.1 billion compared with a record £8 billion in September following a timely increase in export growth following the Euro’s 7% appreciation against the Pound this year.
The overwhelming strength of the Euro is boosting UK manufacturing and increased overseas demand for British made goods with exports rising 1.8% in October while imports declined 1.9%.
The focus this morning will fall on the UK claimant count while the rate of unemployment may stay unchanged at 2.6% as a strong labour market continues to support the economy.
The resilience of the Pound has been a big surprise over the past few trading sessions, particularly since the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time in two years as falling home values and rising prices weighed heavily on consumer sentiment.
In addition, the impact of the credit crunch led to a run on the fifth biggest mortgage lender, Northern Rock plc, while even Barclays reported huge losses linked to the collapse of the U.S subprime mortgage market.
As a result, the Bank of England took the decision to lower interest rates before the turn of the year and provide some relief to the financial sector while also encouraging consumers to step up spending over the festive period.
Nevertheless, the accompanying statement released by the Central Bank seemed to suggest that the MPC wouldn’t necessarily begin a series of rate cuts over the coming months amid upside risks to inflation.
That sentiment was echoed in a report on UK producer prices yesterday where the so called gauge of ‘factory-gate inflation’ rose at the fastest annual pace since 1991 as companies passed on higher costs for food and oil.
The report yesterday will quash speculation that the BoE intend to reduce interest rates by a whole percentage point over the next year as the housing market cools and growth in the economy slows.
The positive sentiment surrounding the Euro gathered momentum yesterday as the single currency extended its rally for a third consecutive trading session amid a host of strong economic reports and hawkish commentary from ECB officials.
The European Central Bank kept the benchmark lending rate on hold at 4.0% last week but the tone of the accompanying statement seemed suggest that policy makers are still concerned with the upside risks to price stability.
In fact, some members of the governing council were even discussing the possibility of raising interest rates this month as the annualized rate of inflation reached 3.0% in November.
The unrelenting appreciation of the Euro has however caused some concern as the strength of the Euro-zone in economy is very heavily reliant on exports and a strong currency will obviously hamper demand from overseas.
Nevertheless, reports in Germany yesterday showed that export growth actually hit a record high in October following the surprising rise in manufacturing, industrial production and factory orders.
The Dollar has declined against most of the 16 most actively traded currencies this week as the focus switches to the FOMC rate announcement this evening with the Fed expected to lower interest rates for the third consecutive month.
The outcome of the meeting is not in question but the severity of monetary easing this evening will be of particular significance in terms of the general direction for the Dollar over the coming month.
The most likely scenario is that the Fed will cut rates by a further 25 basis points and issue a statement reflecting concerns over slowing economic growth and the deepening housing crisis.
The dovish tone of the accompanying statement would pave the way for further monetary easing next year but that scenario may not necessarily prove negative for the Dollar. There is a minority in the market that anticipate a larger cut this month and will therefore be disappointed if the Fed don’t lower rates by 50 basis points.
Following on from last week, the Pound managed to stem any further losses against the majors and recovered for a second day in a row despite the Bank of England’s decision to lower UK interest rates for the first time in two-years.
The monetary policy committee cut the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% as surging credit costs offsets concerns over rising inflationary pressures.
In the accompanying statement, the Central Bank said that conditions in financial markets have deteriorated adding to “downside risks” to consumer price inflation and the economy. Growth in UK service industries has cooled to the slowest pace in four years while consumer confidence has declined amid falling home values.
In the week prior to the Thursday announcement, the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, expressed concerns over rising inflation in the near term but with consumer sentiment at its lowest level in 3-years, the MPC decided to take action and lower interest rates before the new year.
In the aftermath of the announcement, the Pound fell to the lowest level in nearly 3-months versus the Dollar and also recorded significant losses against the Euro amid speculation that the Bank will begin a series of cuts next year.
The positive sentiment surrounding the Euro saw the single currency make further gains against the Pound last week and also hold steady versus the Dollar as the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 4.0%.
A recent spate of positive economic reports have increased speculation that the European economy will prove resilient in the face of rising commodity prices and a strong currency.
That sentiment was reflected in the surprisingly hawkish comments from the chairman of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, who said that some policy makers discussed the possibility of raising interest rates before deciding on a no change.
The annualised pace of inflation has breached the 3% barrier over the past month and the upward pressure on consumer prices means that the Central Bank are unlikely to cut rates in the short-term.
Following the Bank of England rate announcement on Thursday, the Dollar rose to the highest level since September versus the Pound and even tested the major support level at 2.0250 before the release of the monthly U.S job report.
Considering the hawkish tone of the ADP employment index earlier in the week, the Nonfarm Payrolls report was a big disappointment and failed to trigger any market volatility as job growth slowed and average earning grew in November.
However, the ADP employment report had forecast that the economy added in excess of 200,000 jobs to payrolls last month despite varying employment related reports that showed jobless claims rising week-on-week in November.
The focus this week will undoubtedly fall on the FOMC rate announcement tomorrow evening where policy makers are expected to cut interest rates for a third consecutive month.
The Job report on Friday has all but quashed speculation of another 50 basis point cut, particularly with rising inflationary pressures threatening to curtail the pace of economic growth.
The negative sentiment surrounding the Pound continued yesterday as the UK currency plummeted to the lowest level in four years versus the Euro and also dropped below 2.0300 against the Dollar as we build up to the Bank of England interest rate announcement this lunchtime.
A recent spate of poor economic reports have increased the possibility of a quarter-point rate cut this month as the MPC balance persistent inflationary concerns against a slowing economy.
The renewed sense of uncertainty in financial markets stems from the turmoil following the U.S subprime mortgage crisis, which led to a run on UK mortgage lender Northern Rock.
As a result, UK consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level in over three years as diminishing sentiment combined with higher borrowing costs and rising prices discouraged spending.
Elsewhere, the Pound fell to the lowest rate in 6-weeks versus the Dollar amid reports that UK house prices declined by the most in nearly a year last month as tightening credit conditions may see the decade long housing boom come to an end.
Therefore, the Bank of England may have little choice but to lower the benchmark lending rate today amid signs that the housing market is heading towards recession while juggling higher consumer costs and rising inflation.
However, the outcome of the lunchtime announcement is still finely balanced with many economists split on the decision as only two on the nine strong monetary policy committee actually recommended a cut last month.
Although the Euro has risen to the highest level versus the Pound since 2003, the single currency struggled to consolidate on the gains made against the Dollar ahead of the ECB press conference this afternoon where policy makers may signal slowing economic growth in the Euro-zone.
The Central Bank are expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.0% as inflation breached the 3.0% barrier in October amid record high food and energy costs.
However, the tone and language used in the accompanying press conference will be heavily scrutinized as the market looks for an indication on future policy and the chances of monetary easing next year.
The Dollar has made widespread gains against both the Euro and the Dollar despite another barrage of weak economic report and speculation that Friday’s nonfarm payrolls numbers will point to a softening of the labour market.
The number of people out of work and claiming benefits has risen sharply over the past month but the ADP employment report yesterday showed that companies in the U.S have added 189,000 jobs in November.
The overwhelming increase more than triples market expectations and that will provide an insight into nonfarm payrolls tomorrow where the unemployment rate may increasr to 4.8% while average hourly earnings may rise by 0.3% from October.
Data Released 6th December
UK 12:00 BoE Rate Announcement
EU 12:45 ECB Rate Announcement
EU 13:30 ECB Press Conference & Quarterly Economic Froecasts
The volatility surrounding the Pound increased yesterday as the UK currency relinquished much of the earlier gains against the majors as economic data was mixed and provided little insight into the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday.
However, UK retail sales increased at a faster pace than anticipated in November as stores offered incentives to customers in order maintain the pace of consumer spending.
Revenues climbed 1.2% from the same period in 2006 while overall purchases increased 3.1% from October according to reports from the British Retail Consortium.
The Bank of England have recently stated that consumer spending has helped power the fastest period of economic growth in three years and the significance of the report yesterday means that the MPC are unlikely to lower interest rates this month.
Nevertheless, the Pound has declined heavily against the Dollar overnight and dropped back under 1.3900 versus the Euro as the market continues to price in a 50:50 split on whether the Central Bank will cut rates on Thursday.
The focus this morning with fall on the Purchasing Managers’ index on UK service sector growth, which is expected to provide some clarity into the rate decision tomorrow with growth expected to moderate on the month in November.
Therefore, the unrelenting and widespread sterling weakness may continue today and Euro and Dollar buyers would be well placed to insert stop orders into the market to protect against further downside movement.
Despite the fundamental lack of U.S economic data released yesterday, the Dollar made unlikely but modest gains against the Pound and looks poised to strengthen further throughout the course of the day as the lack of direction surrounding UK monetary policy continues to weigh on the Pound.
However, the Dollar failed to rally against the resurgent Euro as Fed Fund Futures are now pricing in a 50% chance of a half point cut this month, which will mean that the FOMC have lowered the benchmark lending rate by 1.25% in just three months.
The recent upside movement of the Dollar doesn’t coincide with market expectations and therefore the data released over the coming week may promote an increased level of volatility surrounding the U.S currency.
The positive sentiment surrounding the Euro continued yesterday as the single currency made widespread gains against both the Pound and the Dollar following reports that European producer prices surged in October to the fastest pace this year.
The gauge of inflation mirrors recent reports on consumer prices as record high food and energy costs saw the annual rate of inflation accelerate to 3.0%. The report yesterday shows that manufacturers are passing on higher costs to the consumer as prices rose to an annualized rate of 3.3% and well above the ECB’s 2.0% target.
Higher inflation and slowing economic growth may see a period of stagflation over the coming months as the turmoil surrounding financial markets intensifies while the U.S housing recession deepens.
Therefore, the ECB will have a difficult decision to make on Thursday and although policy makers may keep rates on hold at 4.00%, the tone and language used in the accompanying statement may reflect concerns over slowing economic growth.
In terms of economic data, the Euro may struggle to consolidate on the gains made against the majors as growth in European service industries cools and retail sales decline.
The Pound rebounded against almost all of the 16 most actively traded currencies yesterday, rising back above 1.4000 versus the Euro while remaining largely unchanged against the Dollar following reports that UK manufacturing output rose above initial forecasts last month.
The PMI survey on factory production increased to a reading of 54.4 in November from 52.9 the previous month and the strength of the report yesterday may have some influence on the Bank of England’s interest rate announcement on Thursday.
The increased level of uncertainty surrounding UK monetary policy may provoke further market movement in the build up to the announcement as the decision to lower interest rates hangs in the balance.
The nine strong monetary policy committee must weigh up the implications of slowing economic growth against persistent inflationary concerns following record high food and fuel costs.
In addition, a report from the British Retail Consortium showed that UK retail sales increased at faster pace than anticipated in November as revenues climbed 1.2% from the same period in 2006.
Consumer spending accounts for nearly two thirds of the economy and the unexpected rise in sales last month will probably encourage policy makers to leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5.75%.
The renewed negative sentiment surrounding the Dollar continued yesterday as the U.S currency recorded further losses against the majors following reports that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia were considering whether to abandon the Dollar in favour of a slightly less volatile currency.
With the Federal Reserve meeting on the 11th December drawing ever closer, the market will be paying particular attention to the tone and laguage used from Fed officals as a further 25 basis point cut is currently being priced into the market.
The European economy has accelerated at the fastest pace in seven years but the unrelenting appreciation of the Euro is beginning to cause concern amongst ECB officials, particularly considering the reliance on exports as a catalyst for stronger economic growth.
In addition, a barrage of negative economic reports combined with rising inflationary pressures may see the chairman of the Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, change the tone and language of his statement on Thursday with the governing council expected to hold interest rates at 4.0%.
The staunchly hawkish stance on monetary policy is likely to continue as growth in manufacturing continues to accelerate while inflation hit 3.0% last month following record high oil prices.
Therefore, the focus this morning will switch to the producer price index, which may show that factory-gate inflation rose to an annual rate of 3.1%, up from 2.7% the previous month.
Following on from last week, the Dollar appeared to make some gains against the majors but the renewed bearish sentiment surrounding the U.S currency means that further downside movement is likely over the coming weeks as we build up to the FOMC rate announcement on the 11th December.
A barrage of negative economic reports combined with the renewed level of volatility surrounding financial markets means that the Federal Reserve are likely to cut interest rates by a further 25 basis points this month.
By the close of trading on Friday, the Dollar had relinquished much of the earlier gains made against the Pound and the Euro following reports that U.S consumer spending rose less than anticipated in October.
In addition, a separate gauge of the report showed that personal incomes also failed to meet expectations, which only serves to reinforce the bearish sentiment coming from the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, who warned of slowing growth in the month’s ahead.
Recent reports have showed that the worst housing slump in 17-years is showing few sings of abating as home values fell to the lowest level in nearly four decades. A further decline in sales combined with rising fuel costs is beginning to weigh on consumer spending, which has helped sustain growth in the U.S economy for the past six years.
The Euro has been susceptible to an increased level of volatility in equity markets of late and the single currency failed to consolidate on the recent record gains made against the Dollar amid speculation that the ECB will be forced to change tact amid slowing growth and rising inflation.
Reports in Germany last week saw retail sales post the biggest monthly decline in almost a year despite the undeniable strength of the labour market as unemployment fell by more than forecast last month.
The Euro’s unrelenting rise against the Dollar will inevitably curb demand from overseas and that will eventually be of concern to policy makers given that export growth has driven the economy to the best performance since 2000.
However, the staunchly hawkish stance of the European Central Bank can be attributed to persistent inflationary concerns as consumer prices accelerated at the fastest pace in over six years in November.
The annual rate of inflation rose to 3% last month from 2.6% in October, adding pressure on the ECB to raise interest rates even as economic expansion cools.
Therefore, the focus this week will inevitably fall on the ECB rate announcement and accompanying press conference, where Jean-Claude Trichet may retain a tightening a bias in order to anchor inflation.
The Pound fell for the first month in three against the Dollar in November while also plummeting to the lowest level in four-years versus the Euro amid signs that a slowing economy may prompt the Bank of England to lower interest rates this week.
The renewed level of uncertainty surrounding financial markets has led to a crisis in confidence amongst investors as appetite for risk aversion increases and traders begin selling higher-yielding assets funded with cheap loans from Japan.
In terms of economic data, the decade long housing boom appears to be coming to an end as UK home sales fell to the lowest level in 12-years, according to a report from the Nationwide Building Society.
While elsewhere, the Pound fell under 2.0600 versus the Dollar on Friday after a report on UK consumer sentiment showed that confidence in the economy had fallen to the lowest level since March 2003.
The focus this week will undoubtedly fall on the Bank of England interest rate announcement on Thursday where the probability of an interest rate cut hangs in the balance.
There is a 50:50 chance of a reduction in borrowing costs this month but considering the hawkish rhetoric from Mervyn King and Andrew Sentence over the past week, policy makers may be divided in holding interest rates until the first quarter of next year.
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