The Pound has continued to test resistance levels above $1.56 against the Dollar, the highest level since February, but the UK currency has struggled to break above 1.20 versus the Euro, losing 0.4% on the day. UK housing data showed that prices fell for the first time in five months in July, amid tighter lending conditions and waning consumer confidence, as the government prepares to introduce spending cuts.
The average cost of a home in Britain fell 0.5% from June, another sign that the fabled recovery in the UK property market is losing momentum. The Bank of England released figures yesterday to show that banks approved fewer mortgage applications than expected in June, with home loans down to 47,643, the lowest total in four months.
The UK housing recovery has shown signs of losing momentum in recent months, as consumers prepare for the most aggressive public spending cuts in the post-war era. The Nationwide Building Society said this week that house prices fell for the first time in five months in July, while Hometrack Ltd also said this week that the market is at a “turning point.”
The Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday that “the gradual improvement in credit conditions that was evident earlier in the year seems to have come to a halt in recent months.” The reports on the UK property market this week have all but dispelled the idea of an interest rate increase, as policy makers maintain emergency stimulus measures.
Ed Stansfield, chief property economist at Capital Economics Ltd, said that “there must be a sense that the rally in house prices that we’ve seen over the last year was built on some pretty shaky foundations. The market is extremely vulnerable to falling back over the remainder of this year.” The gradual deterioration in the economic recovery is expected to sap Sterling sentiment, especially if there are doubts over the prospect of higher interest rates.
The Pound has hit resistance levels close to $1.5650 against the Dollar, while the UK currency retreated to lows around 1.1930, before a mild correction early this morning. UK stocks were virtually unchanged by the close of trading last night, as the benchmark FTSE 100 Index slipped just 0.1%. The gauge is still 8.8% below this year’s high on April 15th, amid concern that growth will be curbed by austerity measures from European governments.
Euro / US Dollar
The Euro rose sharply against the U.S Dollar yesterday, while the single currency has also bounced back against a basket of currencies, including the Pound, as the European economic recovery edges ahead of the U.S and spurs demand for the Euro. A survey released earlier today showed that European confidence in the economic outlook rose to the highest level in two years in July, led by a recovery in services and industrial production.
The Euro has risen to the highest level against the Dollar since May 10th when officials in the Euro-zone announced a $1 trillion bailout package to protect struggling financial institutions against the sovereign debt crisis. The single currency has enjoyed a productive week against the majors, following the European bank stress test results released last Friday, which showed that only 7 out of the 91 banks tested needed to raise capital.
On the other hand, the U.S economic recovery appears to be losing momentum and data released today is expected to show that the preliminary estimate for U.S gross domestic product in the second quarter slowed to 2.5%, from 2.7% in the first three months of the year. The Euro climbed to $1.31 for the first time in almost three months by the close of trading last night.
The Pound made significant gains against a basket of currencies yesterday, rising through $1.56 against the Dollar to the highest level in five-months, while the UK currency also re-visited the resistance level at 1.20 versus the Euro. The Australian Dollar has declined heavily against the Pound and U.S Dollar, after the latest inflationary data showed that consumer prices fell short of initial expectations in June, reducing the prospect of an Australian interest rate hike next week.
The UK currency has risen sharply against all of the 16 most actively traded currencies, particularly the U.S Dollar, after a report in the U.S yesterday showed that consumer confidence declined to the lowest level in five months in June. The Pound is also benefiting from the improvement in risk sentiment, as stocks and commodities continue to rally, reducing the appeal of the Japanese Yen and the U.S Dollar as a refuge.
The Bank of England governor Mervyn King was speaking earlier yesterday and emphasised the need for caution on the economic recovery, saying that there may be a “considerable” way to go before UK monetary policy returns to normal. Policy makers have adopted an ultra loose policy stance, even as inflation exceeds the government’s upper 3% limit.
King said in a testimony to lawmakers that “there will come a point when we will certainly need to ease off the accelerator and return bank rate to more normal levels. I look forward to that time because it will probably be a signal that there is a smoother drive ahead, with the economic outlook improving in a durable way. But I fear there is some considerable distance to travel before we can begin to use the word normal.”
Only Andrew Sentance has stepped out of line and recommended a rate increase over the past two months, with officials concerned about how the government’s spending cuts will impact on the broader economy. David Mile told the Monetary Policy Committee that the central bank should be prepared to step up its bond purchasing program to protect the economic recovery. King’s comments yesterday have done little to dampen Sterling sentiment, as the Pound continues to make strong gains and challenge resistance levels upwards of 1.20 versus the Euro.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said in a report earlier this week that the improvement in UK gross domestic product in the second quarter was a “blip” and may not be sustained for the remainder of the year, as the government embarks on the steepest public spending cuts in the post-war era.
The UK currency is likely to continue its upward momentum against the U.S Dollar in the short-term, amid concerns of a double dip recession and increased fears over the state of the property and labour market. On technical grounds, the Pound’s ability to hold above the 200-day moving average was also an important element, with a challenge on technical levels above $1.5620 before a limited correction.
The Pound has declined moderately this morning, after a report from the Nationwide Building Society showed that UK house prices fell in July for the first time in five months, as tighter lending conditions and government cuts slow the economy and deter first-time buyers. The average cost of a home in the UK fell 0.5% from June, but prices are still up 6.6% from this stage last year.
Euro / US Dollar
The Euro rose against the U.S Dollar and Japanese Yen yesterday, as improving risk appetite pushed global equity markets higher and reduced demand for the perceived safe haven assets. The single currency was close to its strongest level against the Dollar in two months, as the MSCI World Index rose for the fifth straight day.
Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at RBS, said yesterday that reports including last week’s German consumer confidence data and credit growth “continue to show surprising strength”. However, the ECB reported yesterday that there had been a further tightening of credit conditions during the second quarter and this will ease some concern over the financial sector.
The U.S durable goods orders data was weaker-than-expected with the headline figure dropping 1% on the month for June. The Fed’s Beige Book was also mixed, as some districts reported improved conditions, but credit conditions remained generally tight and commercial real estate remained weak. The Euro has found it difficult to sustain its momentum above the $1.30 level, as the Dollar nudged higher towards the close of trading last night.
The Pound rallied to a fresh five-month high against the U.S Dollar this morning, while the UK currency also made strong gains versus the majority of the 16 most actively traded currencies. Sterling hit a high of 1.5575 in London, as global risk appetite continues to improve, diminishing the allure of the U.S Dollar as a safe haven asset.
Concerns over the U.S economic outlook also dominates, amid fears of a double-dip recession, as the economic data points to a slowing housing market and rising unemployment. UK stocks have risen for a second successive day, buoyed by a rally in banking shares, as Barclays Plc rose 5%. The benchmark FTSE 100 Index was up 0.8% by midday, while crude oil prices also hit an 11-week high, after analysts at Goldman Sachs said that the price was too cheap.
Risk appetite continued to improve, after the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision relaxed some of its tougher proposals on capital and liquidity rules. Barclays Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc led the rally in banking shares, as the Committee allowed certain assets, including minority stakes in other financial companies to count as capital.
The latest CBI retail sales data yesterday was much stronger-than-expected and this triggered a fresh surge in the Pound to the upper resistance levels above $1.55 against the Dollar. The survey recorded a strong figure for July and retailers were also optimistic over the outlook for August. Although distorted to some extent by methodology changes, the survey was a four-year high and the Pound was able to continue its upward momentum.
The Pound also recovered earlier losses against the resurgent Euro, rising towards 1.1960 in London, despite a lack of any key economic data released in the UK or the Euro-zone. The corrective recovery appears more technical than fundamental, but Euro buyers are advised to be cautious, as the single currency broke through $1.30 against the U.S Dollar this morning. The performance of the single currency versus the greenback seems to be dictating GBP/EUR in recent days and buyers would be well placed to utilise a stop order to protect against a further downward move.
The UK currency remained broadly resilient towards the close of trading last night, despite a report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which showed that the pace of UK second quarter economic growth was a “blip” and that the Bank of England should continue to maintain emergency stimulus measures.
The preliminary estimate of UK gross domestic product in the three months to June showed that the economy expanded 1.1%, the fastest pace in four years. The result of the data far exceeded initial expectations and presents a difficult challenge to policy makers, who must decide if the economy faces a greater threat from inflation or need additional stimulus, as the government implements the deepest spending cuts in the post-war era.
Simon Kirby, NIESR economist, told reporters yesterday “I don’t think that growth rate will be sustained. Far from that, I think the growth rate will fall back somewhat quite sharply.” Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance this month repeated his recommendation to begin raising interest rates, citing “resilient” inflationary pressures.
Euro / US Dollar
The Euro maintained a strong tone against the Dollar in early European trading yesterday, rising above the coveted $1.30 level against the U.S Dollar. European economic data again provided support, with German consumer confidence rising to 3.9 in July, from a revised 3.6 in June. There was also an annual increase in Euro-zone money supply for the first time since January.
Risk appetite also remained firm and helped push the Euro to the highest level in 11-weeks against the Dollar. The U.S housing data was slightly stronger-than-expected with the Case/Shiller house price index recording a 4.6% increase in the year to May. However, a separate report showed that U.S consumer confidence fell below forecasts in July, as mounting concern over job losses and earnings threatens to curtail the recovery.
Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, said that “faith in the economic recovery is failing. It’ll be 2013 before we see any semblance of normality in the labour market. It means weaker purchases.” There was some weakening in risk appetite following the data, which provided some initial Dollar support. amid a retreat in high-yield and commodity currencies.
The much awaited European bank stress tests were completed on Friday. All major banks passed the tests including the four major UK banks that took part. Also giving the pound a boost on Friday was a strong second quarter GDP figure. Growth came in at 1.1%, nearly double the 0.6% that analysts had been expecting. Also beating market expectations were June retail sales, which rose 0.7% against 0.5% expected.
Tempering the positive mood a report from Hometrack showed a 0.1% fall in house prices in July, and predictions of further modest price falls in the second half of the year. A general feeling that the government’s austerity measures will dent growth is also lingering over sterling and limiting gains.
Turkish central bank governor responded to criticism last week as exporters argued that the Turkish currency should be fixed rather than free floating. Arguing that in real terms the currency index has been relatively stable since 2003, the governor said that “Turkey has protected its competitive force in foreign trade.”
David Cameron was in Turkey yesterday meeting his counterpart, and delivered a speech strongly backing Turkey’s bid to join the EU.
Data for the week ahead is light on the UK front, with mortgage approvals and consumer confidence figures likely to attract the most scrutiny on Thursday. On the other side of the channel the main items are German retail sales (Tue’) inflation data (Wed’) and unemployment (Thur’).
The pound bounced by seven cents from July 13th to July 19th, but gave back those gains last week, making a new four week low on Thursday even as UK retail sales data for June beat expectations. Things looked a little better on Friday. Second quarter GDP figures showed the UK economy grew at 1.1% in the second quarter, an improvement on the 0.3% first quarter figure and much better than analysts had expected. The pound rallied against all other major currencies, but gains against the high yielders were limited, and we are already flirting with new lows against the Kiwi this morning.
The Kiwi dollar has also been benefitting from US dollar weakness as investors continue to take on more risk and buy high yielding assets following the European bank stress test results on Friday. Only seven regional banks failed to make the cut, helping to calm investor nerves and add weight to the fragile recovery.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet on Thursday, and are widely expected to raise interest rates to 3%, making that the second rate hike of the cycle following the 25 basis point move on June 9th. That prospect has been helping the Kiwi, and may continue to do so as investors price in further rate hikes over the coming months. By contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia has already put in a series of rate hikes starting late in 2009, and is now expected to raise rates only once more before the end of the year. We may see the Kiwi start to outperform it’s Australian counterpart.
The technical outlook is not great. After making a marginal new high in early July we are right back at square one. A break below the June low at 2.0750 would remove the last hope of a trend reversal and give us every reason to foresee a return to the 2.0350 lows and beyond.
The Pound took advantage of broad Dollar weakness yesterday, rising to the highest level in three months in London, after UK banks sailed through the European bank stress test. The UK currency has continued through $1.55 for the first time since April 16th, after the FSA said on Friday afternoon that HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc, Lloyds Banking Group Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Plc all passed tests that were designed to show their ability to withstand further economic turmoil.
Adam Cole, head of global foreign-exchange strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, said that “UK banks came out okay from the stress tests, which is probably helping the Pound extend its gains.” The UK currency rose even as data signaling that the economic recovery may be in jeopardy of stalling, as the government cuts spending in an attempt to rein in deficit.
According to a survey from Hometrack Ltd, the average price of a home in England and Wales fell 0.1% from June, as the recovery in the property market shows signs of slowing. The Pound has gained 2.7% against the U.S Dollar since June 25th, amid investor optimism that the recovery will be sustained, after second quarter growth figures came in better-than-expected.
The Pound rallied against the lower-yielding currencies like the Dollar and the Yen, as the FTSE 350 Banks Index gained and the UK currency also withstood a cut in the UK economic growth forecast from the Ernst & Young LLP Item Club. There have been some suggestions that the surprising acceleration in UK gross domestic product in the second quarter will mark the peak of the economic recovery. On Friday, the preliminary estimate of GDP in the three months to June rose 1.1%, almost double the expectations of 0.6% growth.
The Pound rallied towards the pivotal 1.20 level against the Euro on Friday, prior to the release of the stress test results at 5pm, while choppy trading conditions towards the close of the European session saw the UK currency close just under the level. The Euro continued to rally against the Dollar yesterday approaching $1.30 by midday, as only seven out of the 91 banks tested failed and speculation persists that the U.S economy may suffer a “double dip” this year.
The economic outlook in the U.S has soured in recent weeks, while Europe and China have also decelerated simultaneously, leaving widespread concerns over the state of the global economy. The Pound failed to break above 1.20 against the Euro and lost ground towards the close of trading last night. The UK currency will probably remain in the ascendancy against the Dollar, as UK stocks climbed to the highest level in 10-weeks.
Euro / US Dollar
The Euro continued to rally against the majority of the 16 most actively traded currencies yesterday, amid speculation that European banks will be able to avoid defaults, after only 7 out of the 91 banks failed the stress test. The European Union found that banks only need to raise a combined €3.5 billion of capital and regulators are using the tests to reassure investors about the health of financial institutions, after the sovereign debt crisis engulfed Greece, Spain and Portugal.
Rising budget deficits in those struggling EU nations has increased concern that they won’t be able to pay their own debts. Adrian Foster, head of financial markets research for Asia at Rabobank, said that “medium-term accounts look to have come through and picked up the euro. They don’t see near-to-medium term prospects for a default in Europe.”
Some investors have questioned whether the stress tests were rigorous enough to really highlight the problems with European financial institutions, should the sovereign debt crisis worsen. The ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday that the tests were important for providing transparency.
The U.S economic data released yesterday boosted risk appetite, after the sales of new homes rose unexpectedly in June, following an unprecedented collapse the previous month. New home purchases increased 24% from May to an annual pace of 330,000, a signal that the worst of the slump came about due to the end of a government tax credit.
The Euro has rallied towards the significant resistance level at $1.30 against the Dollar and it is no coincidence that the single currency has also made gains versus the Pound. The EUR/USD rate will largely dictate what happens with GBP/EUR and at present sentiment towards the single currency has improved following a string of positive economic reports and the results of the stress test.
The Australian Dollar remained resilient against the majors yesterday, as the prospect of an interest rate increase in August received a boost. The Reserve Bank of Australia said last week that the policy makers intend to use the results of the European stress test to decide whether to raise rates next month, while the latest CPI numbers are expected to show robust inflationary pressures.
Sterling is still on the back foot here, failing to make any convincing breaks above the 11.75 resistance zone. We’ve been up to that level three times in the last three months, and failed on every occasion. Things looked a little better on Friday after the Pound shot out of the blocks on unexpectedly strong GDP figures. Growth in the second quarter came in at 1.1% compared to the 0.6% expected. That’s good news by any measure, and helped to back up the positive retail sales data released the previous day. The problem is, all this supposed good news is adding weight to the case for a general global recovery, which in turn prompts investors to buy the higher yielding currencies like the Rand. Sterling does benefit from strong domestic data, but when everything settles down the high yielders tend to come out on top. The results of the European bank stress tests were also released on Friday, showing that only seven regional banks failed to make the cut. All UK banks passed. Again, more evidence that the world economy is finding its feet. The Rand rallied yesterday as speculation grew that HSBC would acquire South African firm Nedbank. The deal would require the purchase of a significant tranche of South African Rand, which helped the currency tick higher against other units.
In other news, the South African central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 6.5% last week. The last change was on March 25th when they cut rates by 0.5%. Analysts expect them to remain on hold for some time to come.
The technical outlook is negative. We have recoiled from the 11.75 level and now look set to sell off back to the 11.05 level that marked the late June low. Buyers of the Rand should consider hedging any exposure now.
After twice bumping into a clear barrier at 1.6200 in early July we sold off four cents from the July 16th peak. Thursday’s market beating retail sales figures for June failed to help on Thursday, but the Pound was quick out of the blocks on Friday as second quarter GDP figures showed the UK economy grew at 1.1% in the second quarter, an improvement on the 0.3% first quarter figure and much better than analysts had expected. The much awaited European bank stress test results also arrived on Friday, showing that only 7 banks failed to make the cut, with all the UK banks passing. That helped sentiment, and Sterling managed to close higher for the first time in a few days. The problem with all this positive news is that it adds weight to the “global recovery” theory, which in turn gives the high yielding and commodity based currencies a boost. Even with the surprisingly strong GDP figures Sterling finds it hard to make much progress against the Loonie, especially with a background of monetary tightening in Canada contrasting starkly with the 8-1 “no change” vote that the UK’s monetary policy committee stuck to in July.
The big news from Canada last week was a widely expected rise in interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. Other data was actually on the weak side, with a surprise fall in retail sales, and a slowdown in consumer price inflation.
The technical outlook is positive. We are seeing higher lows forming on the chart every few weeks which means the Pound is almost in an uptrend. What would really help is if we could make a higher high! At the moment it seems that the 1.6200 level is a tough nut to crack, and until we capture that level we will remain cautious. For clients who require CAD and who have an appetite for risk, we recommend placing protective stop orders below 1.5425** and waiting to see if we have another stab at 1.6200 over the next few days.
** Suggested level based on the interbank rate. The rate you achieve will depend on the volume of currency traded.
After having drifted over three cents lower from the July 15th peak Sterling put on nearly a cent on Thursday after retail sales for June beat expectations. The Pound was quick out of the blocks on Friday as the much awaited European bank stress tests showed only 7 banks failing to make the cut, with all the UK banks passing. That helped Sterling put on another couple of cents as traders saw good reason to buy the pound and move money away from the safe haven of the US dollar. Second quarter GDP figures also helped the market rally as they showed the UK economy grew at 1.1% in the second quarter, an improvement on the 0.3% first quarter figure and much better than analysts had expected.
The dollar has weakened against almost all major currencies since Friday’s stress tests. Simply by passing without incident the tests have allowed investors to increase their appetite for risk and diversify away from the dollar. A heavy week for US corporate earnings announcements could put more pressure on the dollar if companies meet or exceed earnings expectations. Perversely, positive news on the US economy tends to dent demand for the Greenback as it spurs investors to become bolder and search for higher returns elsewhere.
The technical outlook is positive. The Pound bounced right off trend support at 1.51 last week and has since gone on to make new highs. A key test is the 1.5525 level that marked the high in April. We have already tested this today, and at time of writing Sterling has not managed to capture the level. A close above 1.5525 would give a further technical boost, making 1.5820 the new focal point (that was the late Feb’ peak).
Following on from last week, the Pound rallied by the most in a week against the U.S Dollar, approaching $1.55 by the close of trading on Friday, while the UK currency also traded back towards 1.20 versus the Euro, amid reports from the Office of National Statistics, which showed that UK retail sales rose more than expected in June. Sales rose 0.7% on the month, reducing concern that the economy might suffer a “double-dip” recession, after the biggest public spending cuts in a generation.
Paul Mackel, a director of currency strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc, said that “the retail numbers were very punchy. The European data set has been surprisingly strong and the Pound is riding the coattails.” The UK currency maintained gains against the weak Dollar, after reports showed initial jobless claims rose and existing home sales fell for a second month.
However, the UK recovery may be undermined by events at home and abroad. The deepest spending cuts in the post war era are looming and the sovereign debt crisis that has engulfed much of the Euro-zone may mean that the UK economy is poised to weaken in the second half of the year. That sentiment was echoed in the minutes from the Bank of England’s last policy meeting, released earlier this week.
Policy makers are evidently concerned about the prospects for the economy, as they even considered expanding emergency stimulus measures in June and blocked Andrew Sentance’s sole voice for an increase in UK interest rates. Investors are becoming increasingly concerned that the second quarter figures may just be “as good as it gets” for the economy in 2010, but the Pound has advanced on the robust growth in retail sales.
The Pound continued to gain versus the U.S Dollar, as UK stocks continued to advance following reports in Europe that services and manufacturing growth unexpectedly accelerated in July. The Euro has rallied 8% against the Dollar from the lowest level in four years last month, as investors became more optimistic that the struggling peripheral nations in the Euro-zone will be in a position to finance their own debt, after the ECB embarked on a policy to buy bonds.
Greece, Spain and Portugal have managed to sell €50 billion of debt since May 10th, as the central bank looks to create a near $1 trillion rescue package. The Pound rallied through 1.19 against the Euro on Friday, while the UK currency made significant gains versus the majority of the 16 most actively traded currencies, after a report from the Office of National Statistics showed that the UK economy grew almost twice as much as expected in the second quarter.
Gross domestic product expanded at the fastest pace in four years in the three months to June, rising 1.1%, from 0.3% in the final estimate for the first quarter. The Pound has rallied to a high of $1.5498 against the U.S Dollar, approaching the highest level in three months. The surprising degree of growth in the UK economy can be attributed to the surge in service industries, manufacturing and construction.
Many economists predicted that the second quarter numbers will be “as good as it gets” this year, as the government prepares to introduce tough spending cuts, while the slowdown in the global economy may hurt demand. The focus on Friday was fixed on the release of the European stress test results, as a total of 91 banks were assessed to see whether they would be able to survive further economic downturns and fund their own deficits.
The focus in the UK this week will fall largely on housing and personal lending data. Hometrack, Land Registry and Nationwide are all expected to release data on the UK property market, as prices continue to cool. Meanwhile, UK mortgage approvals should reflect the ongoing tightness of credit conditions, but the Pound may find support, as stocks continue to rally.
Euro / US Dollar
The Euro rallied for the first time in three days against the U.S Dollar on Thursday, after reports in Europe showed that manufacturing and service industries unexpectedly accelerated in July. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers increased above initial estimates in June, while a gauge of German manufacturing also rose this month.
The Euro weakened against 12 out of the 16 most actively traded currencies following the results of the European bank stress test on Friday, amid speculation that the standards of the test were too low to ease concerns that the region’s debt crisis will spread. The single currency declined for the first time in two-days against the Dollar, after regulators found seven banks need to raise a combined €3.5 billion of capital.
There was an immediate concern that the stress tests may not have been strict enough. Mike Jones, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand, said that “initial reaction has been a disappointment about how far the stress tests went. There are some reasons for people to be more cautious going forward. With the euro, there are doubts the currency can sustain a rally above $1.30. The Euro’s rally is running out of steam.”
The increasing concern over the possibility of a double dip recession in the U.S means that the economic data released this week will come under further scrutiny. Friday’s release of the first estimate of gross domestic product in the second quarter is expected to show growth of 2.5%, a modest slowing from 2.7% in the previous quarter.
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The Pound declined against all of the 16 most actively traded currencies in early trading yesterday, as the UK currency tested key support around the 1.20 level versus the Euro. Sterling also dipped to lows near 1.5335 against the U.S Dollar, after a report from the Chartered Institute... Read more
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