In the past week, the Dollar has weakened significantly against the majors amid speculation that U.S economic growth will begin to wane into the second quarter and the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its current rate cycle. The Dollar traded down to a seven month low against the Euro last week and we are currently trading towards 1.7900 against Sterling, following a statement from the Russian finance minister indicating that oil should be priced in Euros as appose to Dollars as the spiralling price of crude oil closed at $72.79 a barrel on Friday.
We have some significant data released in the States this week with U.S. Consumer Spending, due out tomorrow, poised to show a decline to 106.0 in April primarily due to higher petrol prices and rising energy bills. In addition, the dollar may come under further pressure with U.S Existing and New Home Sales both expected to show a decline in March and slowing manufacturing growth will provide an indication that the Federal Reserve are to likely to raise interest rates just once more this year.
In the UK today, Sterling may receive a boost with Retail Sales forecasted to show a rise of 0.4% in March, despite the timing of the Easter period, which came too late to be included in today’s figures and year-on-year growth is predicted to rise to 2.5% from 2.1% the previous month.
With Regards the Euro, Industrial Production in Germany is expected to show a sharp increase in February with the year-on-year growth rate jumping from 3.2% to 5.8% and there is some important data released in the euro-zone tomorrow with the German Ifo index expected to show a slight decline in April primarily due to rising oil prices and euro-zone inflation, due out on Friday, is anticipated to show an improvement to 2.3% in April.
Data Released 24th April
UK 09:30 Retail Sales (Mar)
GER 10:00 Industrial Production
written by Adam Solomon
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