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Yesterday’s public sector borrowing figures showed government spending exceed forecasts. The deficit was already expected to widen markedly, rising to -£8 billion, but in fact overshot projections to clock in at -£9.6 billion. The fact that the government started the new fiscal year with a larger-than-expected overspend prompted a Pound-sell off, from which GBP is [...]

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US Dollar Slides on White House Scandal

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Date: May 17th, 2017.

Disappointment greeted the Bank of England’s (BoE) May policy decision, as investors had hoped to see a second hawk joining Kristin Forbes in voting for an immediate interest rate hike. Coupled with a quarterly Inflation Report that featured forecasts based on the UK achieving a smooth Brexit, this cemented market expectations that the BoE will [...]

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Confidence in the underlying economic health of the UK was boosted as a better-than-expected services PMI topped off April’s round of solid PMIs. Even so, the report highlighted the continued acceleration in domestic inflationary pressure. Coupled with a dip in mortgage approvals, this indicated that consumer confidence and finances remain under pressure, suggesting that support [...]

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In a positive sign for the UK economy, both April’s manufacturing and construction PMIs bettered forecast, indicating a solid start to the second quarter. After the first quarter gross domestic product’s marked slowdown this offered the Pound some encouragement. As Sterling’s post-referendum slide appears to be boosting domestic industry the mood of investors naturally improved, [...]

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March’s retail sales figures eroded confidence in the health of the UK economy, with sales found to have contracted -1.5% on the month. This indicated that households are already starting to cut back on spending; a trend which only looks set to deepen as rising inflation and stagnant wages put pressure on the cost of [...]

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Sterling surged across the board in the wake of Theresa May’s unexpected call for a general election. With markets forecasting an increased Conservative majority, the expectation is for the move to increase political stability in the long term. Although such a result would limit the influence which the opposition parties can exert over Brexit (increasing [...]

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Both the UK manufacturing and construction PMIs for March proved disappointing, weighing on the Pound as confidence in the health of the economy faltered. However, the corresponding services PMI ultimately bettered expectations and demonstrated strong growth even as consumer-focused sectors struggled. This shored up optimism in the economic outlook of the UK and boosted GBP [...]

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It was a volatile few days for the Pound, with Article 50 finally triggered and the official Brexit process underway. As UK and EU politicians are already at odds over the order of negotiations, concerns over the prospect of an exit via the cliff edge intensified. Although actual talks are not set to start for [...]

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Demand for the Pound surged in the wake of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision, with policymakers unexpectedly split on the matter. Known hawk Kristin Forbes voted for an immediate 25bpt rate hike, raising hopes that the Bank could shift from its neutral outlook sooner than anticipated. This optimistic view was cemented by [...]

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US Dollar Volatility Expected on Fed Comments

Posted by:
Date: March 15th, 2017.

Growth in UK average weekly earnings were found to have slowed further than forecast in the three months to January, clocking in at 2.2% rather than 2.6%. This disappointing showing suggests that consumers are likely to experience a greater squeeze in the coming months. With inflation expected to continue to pick up for some time [...]

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